NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d961c019803bbdcd979355d90dd2490205297c8dbae41324d174c675e98baa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Lightning, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 32c | 1,192$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Sabres | 68c | 929.61$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.47 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Sabres | 71c | 276.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning | 29c | 231.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Lightning | 24c | 196.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 69c | 170.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sabres | 68c | 163.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Sabres | 76c | 159.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…d7b6backed Sabres | 68c | 123$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lightning | 16c | 108.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 32c | 108.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lightning | 20c | 101.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…57b9backed Lightning | 32c | 96.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Sabres | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Sabres | 69c | 62.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…104dbacked Lightning | 31c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Sabres | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sabres | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Lightning | 29c | 44.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Sabres | 68c | 37.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Sabres | 69c | 31.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Sabres | 68c | 15.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabres | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. SabresSabres won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.