NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df6c8180ab27ce10edccd74c8c51e1722d8626c7c8ea8e1e9816ba92eb011c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 39c | 4,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.98 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Under | 8c | 2,888$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 61c | 2,140$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.6 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 27c | 1,756$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.82 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 61c | 1,417$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.04 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 4c | 1,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 776.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 35c | 546.55$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…60f9backed Over | 65c | 495.06$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 238.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 224.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 61c | 191.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 37c | 169.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 36c | 167.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 68c | 162.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 63c | 159.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Under | 40c | 159.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 62c | 137.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 59c | 130.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Over | 72c | 93.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 62c | 80.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…8010backed Under | 33c | 71.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 37c | 68.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Under | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…82c0backed Under | 40c | 49.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 60c | 36.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Over | 72c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 38c | 29.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…c233backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 60c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…5c73backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. SabresSabres won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.