Music · resolved market
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26198ae13213226381c83d64ddeae846e3edcac36f91587e6708ef7933aa0205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,426 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 4c | 1,587$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…22f0backed Yes | 23c | 1,466$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 8c | 939.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 63c | 799.99$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 20c | 738.22$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 24c | 493.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 365.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 36c | 340$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 62c | 307.95$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 27c | 305.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 280.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes | 20c | 250.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 30c | 232.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 211.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 69c | 153.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 152.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…c225backed Yes | 9c | 151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 131.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…6f60backed Yes | 20c | 125.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 19c | 122.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b1aabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…e957backed Yes | 35c | 57.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 79c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?this page
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?Yes won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be less than 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.