Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1375fa42830198a7fdd776d25b0e5dc41be5e5de2c654c21fc29343263cc8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $395,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,910 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 437 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 21c | 32,078$6,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,845.59 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 18c | 31,849$5,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,634.75 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 16,931$4,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,468.91 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 23c | 14,977$3,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,411.29 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 19c | 12,582$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.44 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 28c | 12,271$3,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,431.36 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 8,940$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.06 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 73c | 7,551$5,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.8 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 79c | 7,444$5,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.39 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 3c | 5,901$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 20c | 5,771$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.68 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 37c | 5,314$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.81 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 71c | 5,108$3,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.8 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 16c | 4,772$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.26 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 28c | 4,729$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 15c | 4,708$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.93 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 30c | 4,706$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.28 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,876$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.37 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.78 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,476$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.8 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 27c | 3,387$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.2 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 3,332$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.19 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 26c | 3,325$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.4 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 31c | 3,212$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.01 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 40c | 3,118$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.14 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 22c | 2,886$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.1 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 30c | 2,800$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.61 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 18c | 2,800$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.99 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 27c | 2,780$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.99 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 30c | 2,592$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.91 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 32c | 2,412$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.02 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,340$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.43 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 7c | 2,296$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 2,166$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.62 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…50a4backed Yes | 45c | 2,124$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 40c | 2,115$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.88 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 24c | 2,070$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.41 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.62 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.12 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 24c | 1,966$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…5a18backed Yes | 9c | 1,954$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3f90backed Yes | 18c | 1,879$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,659$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.88 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 27c | 1,600$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.72 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 32c | 1,550$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.49 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,539$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 30c | 1,527$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.97 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,453$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.06 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes | 14c | 1,437$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,429$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,426$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.35 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6429…573fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,423$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…1523backed Yes | 28c | 1,413$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,396$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.32 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,372$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…3102backed Yes | 19c | 1,252$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,232$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.77 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 29c | 1,228$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 21c | 1,183$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.55 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 11c | 1,174$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 31c | 1,152$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.12 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 1,119$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.48 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd341…b73fbacked No | 79c | 1,117$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…6900backed Yes | 12c | 1,091$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.91 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 22c | 1,087$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,082$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.9 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 34c | 1,070$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.89 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…9d92backed Yes | 21c | 1,059$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.42 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 1,031$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2a…3008backed Yes | 20c | 1,031$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 25c | 1,030$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,022$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 15c | 1,012$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 1,011$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.67 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 18c | 1,002$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.87 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 30c | 992.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes | 16c | 961.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 26c | 900.31$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 74c | 875.75$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.3 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 29c | 872.2$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.9 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 9c | 863.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 26c | 858.42$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.16 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 846.87$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.08 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…d145backed Yes | 24c | 830$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 49c | 817.1$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.38 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 8c | 800$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 29c | 800$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 16c | 799.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 18c | 769.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.