Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ec4092391ea4d4c8be77921eaf0004d6eec8da257657e102865d3218e03b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $516,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,049 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 51,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 19,703$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.26 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 14,667$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 13,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 1c | 13,075$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,993$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 11,774$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 1c | 10,395$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…a05dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,263$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…a438backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…9d92backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,091$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…31b3backed Yes | 1c | 4,069$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,447$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 1c | 3,072$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 2,518$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,103$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…6419backed Yes | 2c | 1,983$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…6892backed Yes | 1c | 1,827$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,614$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…f8d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,591$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,562$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…595dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,537$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…4800backed Yes | 1c | 1,309$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,299$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…ff08backed Yes | 1c | 1,293$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,267$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,238$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…383cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,212$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…af50backed Yes | 2c | 1,179$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eff…69d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc735…fc7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,149$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 1,087$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,060$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…7f83backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed Yes | 1c | 999.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…455fbacked Yes | 1c | 951$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5c…869cbacked Yes | 2c | 858$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa932…79a6backed Yes | 2c | 831.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…7729backed Yes | 2c | 831$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 2c | 781.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 2c | 778.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 777.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…47aabacked Yes | 6c | 729.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 2c | 722.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…f89bbacked Yes | 2c | 539$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 500.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…a8f7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 3c | 485.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 3c | 467.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9cd5backed Yes | 4c | 394.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…7923backed Yes | 4c | 369.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 3c | 356.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209a…4222backed Yes | 3c | 328.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.