Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2988fbb398c82ea299ee8a165aeef51dc393177e5871675396cb91c3bb138cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,431 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 16,177$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 8c | 7,375$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.72 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 5,494$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 17c | 5,049$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.42 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,827$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.36 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 21c | 3,404$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.05 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,240$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…329bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,554$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 2,253$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.23 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c37…a529backed Yes | 1c | 2,231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 2,070$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec0…798bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,010$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.04 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.87 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,946$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…7f00backed Yes | 2c | 1,789$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 13c | 1,754$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.29 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,727$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.69 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…adb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,608$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…aa67backed Yes | 1c | 1,608$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 16c | 1,579$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.86 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…6809backed Yes | 1c | 1,541$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 17c | 1,523$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.15 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 19c | 1,515$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.32 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…9509backed Yes | 1c | 1,476$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…1eabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,462$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 1,457$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…f750backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +1,294.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 5c | 1,361$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…c128backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,236$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,193$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,181$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,026$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 15c | 1,004$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 999.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 15c | 962.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 2c | 960.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 11c | 923.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…10c9backed Yes | 4c | 890.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 796.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 14c | 715$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 9c | 713.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 8c | 655.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes | 19c | 562.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 12c | 538.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 24c | 499.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 16c | 499.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 2c | 480.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1df7backed Yes | 7c | 479.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 180 | 24.4%44 W · 136 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 2c | 456$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 436$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 4c | 396.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 17c | 376.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0389backed Yes | 15c | 343.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked No | 77c | 317.17$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b0…2c50backed Yes | 16c | 316.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 16c | 307.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 25c | 296.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 5c | 261.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 14c | 255.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No | 78c | 249.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…43e4backed Yes | 9c | 236.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 15c | 224.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed No | 78c | 222.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 16c | 202.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…4064backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 26c | 190.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 15c | 185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 29c | 175.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…a65abacked Yes | 15c | 168.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…88b1backed Yes | 16c | 165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…f3a8backed Yes | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 142.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 18c | 138.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 130.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9cd5backed Yes | 19c | 117.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 111.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 16c | 110.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 18c | 109.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…68cabacked Yes | 25c | 106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…415cbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…2807backed Yes | 16c | 91.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.