Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce5d8e8e7680b269bf30b7e1aebf5b3c476915e80ec3c3479aa832a1e25d475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 26,873$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 10,981$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 3c | 7,281$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.92 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 0c | 4,670$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…25adbacked Yes | 4c | 2,970$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,609$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,499$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,243$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 1,958$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,857$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,838$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 2c | 1,805$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,403$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0389backed Yes | 4c | 1,288$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,268$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,164$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 1,135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 4c | 1,101$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 5c | 1,015$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 872.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 5c | 845.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 830.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 3c | 823.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 808.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 3c | 719.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 5c | 649.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 3c | 648.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 2c | 640.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…9cd5backed Yes | 5c | 581.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 2c | 539.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…f7b4backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 494.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…dc0bbacked Yes | 5c | 412.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…cd25backed Yes | 3c | 376.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.