Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x252365358641fba66314860d03443b424f73ae866ccf96c8b818d63f76e2cc48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $689,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $689,249 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 81,685$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.59 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 25,741$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 19,479$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 2c | 11,524$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.01 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 11,228$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.9 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 8,940$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 2c | 8,108$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,074$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,980$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.17 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 7,499$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 2c | 6,352$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…5392backed Yes | 3c | 5,990$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 4,513$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf90…9c7dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,485$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 2c | 4,403$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…4800backed Yes | 4c | 4,328$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 4,033$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…2f4bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 2c | 4,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 3,864$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,859$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 3,792$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…30f0backed Yes | 4c | 3,669$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…09c7backed Yes | 5c | 3,659$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…d2b7backed Yes | 2c | 3,596$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 5c | 3,528$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efe…b1d1backed Yes | 4c | 3,499$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,823.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 6c | 3,300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…796dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,235$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 3,231$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…bfd4backed Yes | 5c | 3,227$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 7c | 3,167$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,036$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…6587backed Yes | 5c | 3,024$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 1c | 2,832$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…4262backed Yes | 4c | 2,707$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,640$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…6a18backed Yes | 4c | 2,572$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…02abbacked Yes | 5c | 2,550$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…a01fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,515$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…1111backed Yes | 5c | 2,513$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…f750backed Yes | 5c | 2,474$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +1,294.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…d909backed Yes | 4c | 2,468$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 4c | 2,460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…0876backed Yes | 5c | 2,453$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…835fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,419$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 6c | 2,417$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,378$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…c2efbacked Yes | 5c | 2,367$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…7ffabacked Yes | 4c | 2,359$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 6c | 2,300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…aba0backed Yes | 4c | 2,267$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…9127backed Yes | 9c | 2,256$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…9d92backed Yes | 10c | 2,237$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.41 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 2c | 2,191$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…21fcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,174$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,996.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d1…b35cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,111$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…2763backed Yes | 5c | 2,104$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…0cebbacked Yes | 5c | 2,096$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…fb56backed Yes | 5c | 2,072$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,013$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 6c | 2,003$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 7c | 1,985$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a58…41a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,985$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…60fcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,970$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4d…2f9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,955$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…3213backed Yes | 5c | 1,948$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,908$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…993cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,882$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…bed8backed Yes | 4c | 1,804$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,803$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb095…103ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,789$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…531dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,766$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,676$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e2abacked Yes | 6c | 1,621$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba75…adb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,599$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,541$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e6…71d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,523$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…443fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,521$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…3a3fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,509$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…fee0backed Yes | 3c | 1,494$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +202.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8879…bc0bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,488$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,823.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 7c | 1,441$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,429$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…96b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,426$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…f89bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,397$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,362$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…ef16backed Yes | 4c | 1,357$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…0289backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 4c | 1,251$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…329bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,212$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.