TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,619 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes9c31,110$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.5763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes13c22,174$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.151,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes4c18,945$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.375635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes2c15,194$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7424815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes21c11,000$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.4720735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes15c8,850$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.4731621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes9c8,108$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.2366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes5c7,231$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2210322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes11c6,864$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.379726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes10c6,035$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes14c5,701$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.8756329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes17c4,557$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.4313511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes33c4,415$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.9454122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,225$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.812,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes13c4,080$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.436417.2%11 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes1c4,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.55325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes4c3,900$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15611721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes4c3,688$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1456817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes15c3,329$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No68c3,229$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.4254274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes18c3,013$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.4587618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes1c3,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes10c2,455$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6317723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes14c2,119$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.946521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes5c2,000$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9721215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes31c2,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61018822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes18c1,889$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.0933422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes16c1,739$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4413513.3%18 W · 117 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed Yes1c1,614$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c1,608$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.782,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes28c1,600$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4486630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes20c1,543$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.5487917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes11c1,497$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8229227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes1c1,395$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick12cpaid+39.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb104…10c9backed Yes11c1,344$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.045024%12 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-42.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes26c1,280$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes18c1,272$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.031,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes17c1,265$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3b…b190backed Yes5c1,213$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes6c1,212$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3924710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c1,200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes14c1,190$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.246920.3%14 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+207.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes26c1,175$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.7426211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes32c1,109$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.551,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes10c1,055$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0530317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes29c1,039$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0963021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24025023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes32c999.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3209911.1%11 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes25c970.39$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.78622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes24c940.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.461,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked No75c899.99$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.6150913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes26c899.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2348724.1%21 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes10c877.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6533231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes12c854.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x740d…5cbebacked Yes1c840.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x918a…aa22backed Yes2c835.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182524%6 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b0…bad9backed Yes6c825$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes10c800.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805928.8%17 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes28c799.61$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes13c770.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes34c767.32$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes27c765.25$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.227316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes4c744.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.731189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes12c726.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.847028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6d…2af3backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes12c701.92$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.192321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes10c699.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7032110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes34c693.81$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.1626411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes4c682.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes2c630$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0934127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd897…9b49backed No62c611.93$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.556157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes20c600$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.686222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes30c578.44$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6343933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x760f…ccfcbacked Yes6c577$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c555.27$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405d…74b1backed Yes3c545$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.06130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes14c544.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759626%25 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes31c541.61$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.925944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No80c527.06$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.067466.2%49 W · 25 L+0.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae91…6ae4backed Yes6c507$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes45c500.29$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.698923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes5c500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7128016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No75c499.95$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.994365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes20c491.1$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-93.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd9…7a92backed No72c479.62$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes28c466.46$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13018321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes23c460.15$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0448819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c436$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes26c425$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.113023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes30c399.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12019317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes20c399.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4527024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes14c385.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.15797.6%6 W · 73 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes19c365.42$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4238614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a0…72d9backed Yes29c350.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e0…1affbacked No72c334.64$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.77728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes13c332.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4813718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes8c328$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6313713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.