Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b5afb9aef4a5e07d71f5a8857c6eba89b38658f05dfc5f593c63e36d22d600d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $306,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,619 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 31,110$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.57 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 13c | 22,174$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.15 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 4c | 18,945$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.37 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 2c | 15,194$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.74 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 21c | 11,000$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.47 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 15c | 8,850$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.47 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 8,108$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.23 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,231$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.22 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 11c | 6,864$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.37 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes | 10c | 6,035$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 14c | 5,701$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.87 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,557$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.43 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 33c | 4,415$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.94 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 4,080$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.43 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 4c | 3,900$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 3,688$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,329$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 68c | 3,229$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.42 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 18c | 3,013$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.45 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 10c | 2,455$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.63 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 14c | 2,119$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 18c | 1,889$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.09 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 16c | 1,739$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 1c | 1,614$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 1,608$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.78 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 28c | 1,600$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 20c | 1,543$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.54 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 11c | 1,497$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 1c | 1,395$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…10c9backed Yes | 11c | 1,344$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 26c | 1,280$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.23 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 1,272$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.03 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,265$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.17 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…b190backed Yes | 5c | 1,213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,212$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 14c | 1,190$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,175$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.74 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 32c | 1,109$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.55 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 10c | 1,055$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,039$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.09 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 25c | 970.39$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 24c | 940.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.46 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked No | 75c | 899.99$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.61 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 26c | 899.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 10c | 877.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 12c | 854.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…5cbebacked Yes | 1c | 840.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 2c | 835.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…bad9backed Yes | 6c | 825$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 10c | 800.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 28c | 799.61$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 13c | 770.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 34c | 767.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 27c | 765.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 744.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 12c | 726.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…2af3backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 12c | 701.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 34c | 693.81$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.16 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 682.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 2c | 630$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed No | 62c | 611.93$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 20c | 600$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 578.44$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760f…ccfcbacked Yes | 6c | 577$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 555.27$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.09 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…74b1backed Yes | 3c | 545$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 14c | 544.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 31c | 541.61$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 80c | 527.06$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…6ae4backed Yes | 6c | 507$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 45c | 500.29$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked No | 75c | 499.95$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 20c | 491.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…7a92backed No | 72c | 479.62$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 28c | 466.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 23c | 460.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 436$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 26c | 425$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 399.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 14c | 385.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 19c | 365.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a0…72d9backed Yes | 29c | 350.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked No | 72c | 334.64$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 13c | 332.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 8c | 328$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.