TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof ARCRED, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$297,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3088…2391backed ARCRED0c210,956$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.684856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked ARCRED44c9,106$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.3116245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ARCRED45c6,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.9766851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked ARCRED44c5,754$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.3275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed ARCRED49c4,294$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.44,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Virtus.pro57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.991,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked ARCRED57c2,907$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.0836453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5667…8ca3backed Virtus.pro34c2,896$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.012454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Virtus.pro55c2,678$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.7455845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked ARCRED49c2,437$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.083,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd689…ffe0backed Virtus.pro55c1,891$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.911145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e5…4318backed Virtus.pro60c1,631$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.531957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Virtus.pro57c1,515$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.081,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea1c…921bbacked Virtus.pro55c1,492$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.9412143.8%53 W · 68 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked ARCRED42c1,446$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.3310262.7%64 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Virtus.pro59c1,362$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.013740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED45c1,241$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.856,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Virtus.pro55c1,126$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.455442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed ARCRED40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb12…6a81backed Virtus.pro56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4408548.2%41 W · 44 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Virtus.pro55c990.86$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.891662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8868…ec09backed Virtus.pro56c944$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.262352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Virtus.pro56c881.22$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.748540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf85d…ab00backed Virtus.pro61c864.61$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.894242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Virtus.pro46c860$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.9794645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked ARCRED26c789.58$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6526341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed ARCRED45c749.99$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.59642.7%41 W · 55 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Virtus.pro55c680$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30635745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8407…4589backed Virtus.pro56c674.78$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.152133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…f6c4backed Virtus.pro55c663.76$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.695944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ARCRED46c659.61$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.422,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Virtus.pro56c648.07$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.0754543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked Virtus.pro55c578.18$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.1817449.4%86 W · 88 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ARCRED45c559.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Virtus.pro55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4598856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe19…d398backed Virtus.pro56c516.4$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.221560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e9e…102abacked Virtus.pro57c510$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.39757.7%56 W · 41 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed ARCRED43c500.47$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.216544.8%74 W · 91 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Virtus.pro28c499.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9885851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Virtus.pro54c472.86$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5219949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Virtus.pro54c444.98$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.984546.7%21 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Virtus.pro55c441$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4521744.7%97 W · 120 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb18…2571backed Virtus.pro55c427.27$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.271560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Virtus.pro58c401.5$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.637949.4%39 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Virtus.pro55c383.56$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0731241.3%129 W · 183 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Virtus.pro54c376$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8544343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…891cbacked Virtus.pro56c375$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24a…8382backed Virtus.pro56c375$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16514248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…ba5cbacked Virtus.pro55c369.43$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.243461.8%21 W · 13 L+6.1wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+41.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc0e…2becbacked Virtus.pro56c352$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.881662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed Virtus.pro59c339.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5820156.7%114 W · 87 L-0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ARCRED45c325.3$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.394,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080f…fcc2backed Virtus.pro55c319$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.558250%41 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd5…12a2backed Virtus.pro56c301.37$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.62050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Virtus.pro74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7822754.2%123 W · 104 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Virtus.pro40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18030348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6766…0db2backed Virtus.pro57c290.89$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.894959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cba…dbf7backed ARCRED36c281.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb441…f757backed Virtus.pro53c273.02$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6218754%101 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Virtus.pro56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.861,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked Virtus.pro55c263.61$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.626437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed ARCRED46c262.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1477351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ARCRED45c258.81$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.462,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Virtus.pro55c249.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6a…9a1fbacked Virtus.pro56c249.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106100%6 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Virtus.pro52c227$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.968648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked ARCRED46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.219147.1%90 W · 101 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76af…25c3backed Virtus.pro56c216.58$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.34344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked ARCRED24c215.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2418549.2%91 W · 94 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5900…45ebbacked Virtus.pro55c213.38$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.414856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddd…1ad3backed ARCRED43c213.36$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7615954.1%86 W · 73 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked ARCRED37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7458343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Virtus.pro52c191.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8558149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed Virtus.pro60c189.44$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7812252.5%64 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro50c189.21$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.797,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Virtus.pro55c184.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4121653.2%115 W · 101 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba23…cd7ebacked Virtus.pro57c174.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0515455.2%85 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked ARCRED29c171.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.231,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Virtus.pro54c162.58$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.284,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d5…9727backed Virtus.pro55c162.09$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9417438.5%67 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Virtus.pro62c160.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1633354.4%181 W · 152 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked ARCRED64c156.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.711,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED44c148.91$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.954,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed Virtus.pro58c145$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.91080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+49.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed ARCRED45c143.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.922,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Virtus.pro55c139.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9827156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Virtus.pro72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ARCRED45c138.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.391,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Virtus.pro55c135.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.183138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f47…b8f2backed Virtus.pro64c134.97$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Virtus.pro48c129.82$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5134542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741a…b692backed Virtus.pro55c121.82$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.823455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Virtus.pro58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.422954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Virtus.pro55c116.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3628052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Virtus.pro56c111.07$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8730951.5%159 W · 150 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed Virtus.pro44c109.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.392458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Virtus.pro43c109.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4739038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed Virtus.pro56c107.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2121950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8670…b34bbacked Virtus.pro55c102.29$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.033148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac89…3783backed Virtus.pro55c100.35$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.163548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.