TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$508,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,540 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 577 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c23,829$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.951,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes74c21,382$15,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,733.5566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No71c20,870$14,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,075.8613430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No34c11,157$3,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,346.3129331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8506…8704backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6f…b4acbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes24c9,867$2,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.2563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes71c8,805$6,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,248.862259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes54c7,836$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.8957222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes38c7,614$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.513330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes43c6,956$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.1613513.3%18 W · 117 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes39c6,643$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.2931621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes51c5,463$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,811.2928526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No44c5,333$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.5856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No33c5,005$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.7814219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9501225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No63c4,850$3,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.2254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bae…ae53backed Yes54c4,531$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.983625%9 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No36c3,869$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.162539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes44c3,657$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.321034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes49c3,639$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.016222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed No46c3,617$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.373267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes54c3,540$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.4176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes47c3,251$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.79726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No54c3,072$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.4320735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…c9f0backed Yes56c2,941$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.152171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No44c2,937$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.216056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes69c2,934$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.177211.1%8 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes52c2,802$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.647233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes27c2,516$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.0328016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes67c2,500$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.9931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No20c2,413$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,922.3746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes39c2,253$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.897028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes72c2,128$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.252347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes30c2,112$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.9110036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c2,098$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.412,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes22c2,096$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.881,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.9918123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee65…1109backed Yes61c1,795$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1016527.7%18 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes42c1,745$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73514137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9958…36b9backed Yes77c1,660$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No42c1,659$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.5522142.5%94 W · 127 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes22c1,650$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.734215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes29c1,595$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes57c1,574$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.2134425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes53c1,533$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.1817723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes32c1,508$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.825023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e3…caa5backed No13c1,500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3051258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes14c1,469$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed No32c1,453$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.274526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes16c1,374$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.848320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No39c1,335$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.912411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes71c1,290$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.7818424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked No56c1,241$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.9323819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes27c1,222$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.229911.1%11 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6f9…fd9dbacked Yes8c1,212$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964714.9%7 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6533…59d0backed Yes48c1,200$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes16c1,200$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked No42c1,186$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.759926.3%26 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes41c1,152$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed No60c1,149$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.758622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No56c1,126$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.9631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes50c1,114$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.4338828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes42c1,104$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes45c1,078$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.3657621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes74c1,022$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.5941230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes33c1,019$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.041,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes54c1,012$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.918822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Yes79c1,000$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7901435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015413%20 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes30c1,000$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29721215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked Yes65c999.96$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.983636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No12c960$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.845511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes74c941.26$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes42c932.97$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.6188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes46c925.03$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.234122%9 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb29…64f3backed Yes78c918.02$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.271346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes11c908$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.882218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e1…62c8backed Yes76c900$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6814353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes40c888.92$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8148819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf59…deb0backed Yes75c884.42$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.09825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes28c860.5$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.651533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes61c859.83$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.4659225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes60c829.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No42c826.78$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.746167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4819020.5%39 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44041017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes4c800$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes63c783.9$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.135240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0345…f712backed Yes71c766.81$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.692951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc1…3058backed Yes78c764.16$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.849338.7%36 W · 57 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes57c747.21$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.5224815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes32c743.55$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No40c742.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.149423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd0ef…bd8ebacked No17c726.63$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.14683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+118.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes58c708.65$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3629227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5694…6052backed Yes64c700$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28025617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.