Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd579f6b57385b98f4b48253c0e3e98b1d85438ae48b19ec3af82146ba509950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $508,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,540 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 577 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 23,829$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.95 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 74c | 21,382$15,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,733.55 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 71c | 20,870$14,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,075.86 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 34c | 11,157$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,346.31 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…8704backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…b4acbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 24c | 9,867$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.25 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 71c | 8,805$6,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,248.86 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 54c | 7,836$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.89 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 38c | 7,614$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886.51 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 43c | 6,956$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997.16 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 39c | 6,643$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.29 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 51c | 5,463$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.29 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 44c | 5,333$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.58 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 33c | 5,005$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,377.78 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 63c | 4,850$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.22 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…ae53backed Yes | 54c | 4,531$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.98 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 36c | 3,869$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.1 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 44c | 3,657$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.3 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 49c | 3,639$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.01 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 46c | 3,617$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.37 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 3,540$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.41 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 47c | 3,251$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.7 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 54c | 3,072$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.43 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 56c | 2,941$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.15 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 44c | 2,937$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.2 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 69c | 2,934$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.17 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 52c | 2,802$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.64 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,516$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.03 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 67c | 2,500$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.99 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 20c | 2,413$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.37 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 39c | 2,253$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.89 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4239…5dafbacked Yes | 72c | 2,128$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 30c | 2,112$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.91 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 2,098$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 22c | 2,096$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.88 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.99 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…1109backed Yes | 61c | 1,795$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 42c | 1,745$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…36b9backed Yes | 77c | 1,660$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 42c | 1,659$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.55 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 22c | 1,650$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.7 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,595$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.44 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 57c | 1,574$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.21 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 53c | 1,533$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.18 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 32c | 1,508$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.8 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e3…caa5backed No | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 14c | 1,469$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed No | 32c | 1,453$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.27 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 1,374$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 1,335$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.9 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 71c | 1,290$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.78 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 56c | 1,241$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.93 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,222$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f9…fd9dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,212$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…59d0backed Yes | 48c | 1,200$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 42c | 1,186$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.75 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 41c | 1,152$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.7 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed No | 60c | 1,149$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.75 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 1,126$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.96 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 50c | 1,114$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.43 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,104$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.4 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 45c | 1,078$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.36 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 74c | 1,022$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.59 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 33c | 1,019$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.04 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 54c | 1,012$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…79dbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 65c | 999.96$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 12c | 960$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.8 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 74c | 941.26$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 42c | 932.97$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.61 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 46c | 925.03$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.23 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…64f3backed Yes | 78c | 918.02$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed Yes | 76c | 900$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 40c | 888.92$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.81 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 75c | 884.42$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 28c | 860.5$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 61c | 859.83$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.46 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 60c | 829.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 42c | 826.78$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.74 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 4c | 800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 63c | 783.9$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.13 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…f712backed Yes | 71c | 766.81$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.69 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…3058backed Yes | 78c | 764.16$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.84 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 57c | 747.21$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.52 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 743.55$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 40c | 742.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.14 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ef…bd8ebacked No | 17c | 726.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 58c | 708.65$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.36 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…6052backed Yes | 64c | 700$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.