Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30521732b1264fe8cacbf25dced8b4b57cf6db25fd460fd3b3d2804bc25671b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,883 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1740…d7c0backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 9c | 12,738$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.27 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 8c | 11,217$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.46 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 1c | 7,818$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 145 | 7.6%11 W · 134 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…df80backed Yes | 2c | 5,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,429$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.37 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 1c | 4,143$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,029$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.05 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 1c | 3,994$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…182ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,701$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,479$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.73 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,477$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.25 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 3,398$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.33 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,953$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.76 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 2,932$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.43 | 83 | 12%10 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 6c | 2,785$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.42 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,408$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 1c | 2,388$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…10c9backed Yes | 9c | 2,254$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,222$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 10c | 2,212$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.14 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 4c | 2,126$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 2,118$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 2,049$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 9c | 2,039$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.32 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 10c | 2,017$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,938$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6838…64ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,882$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 11c | 1,770$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 8c | 1,488$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,457$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,405$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 9c | 1,393$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 8c | 1,326$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,278$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…2f29backed Yes | 6c | 1,198$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 7c | 1,073$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,004$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…f0dabacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…ef59backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 11c | 964.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Yes | 10c | 946.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 7c | 900.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 864.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 2c | 854$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 6c | 849.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…6256backed Yes | 3c | 818.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…d586backed Yes | 10c | 800$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 5c | 699.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 630.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 5c | 624.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f1…26eebacked Yes | 8c | 603.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 4c | 599.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 6c | 589.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 4c | 575$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…b4e4backed Yes | 8c | 566.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…d8cdbacked Yes | 6c | 540.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…5061backed Yes | 6c | 537.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…109dbacked Yes | 4c | 528.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes | 19c | 526.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…c1acbacked Yes | 4c | 513.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 10c | 510$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 12c | 499.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…2ba5backed Yes | 10c | 490.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 21.3%32 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…04ffbacked Yes | 7c | 466.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 10c | 395$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 10c | 385.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 380$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 360.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 357.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…9a08backed Yes | 10c | 340.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…f372backed Yes | 6c | 329.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 307.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…c1e1backed Yes | 11c | 275.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…899fbacked Yes | 8c | 253.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 9c | 229.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…491bbacked Yes | 9c | 223.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…b5fcbacked Yes | 9c | 219.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 14c | 219.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 7c | 207.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes | 10c | 206.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 10c | 206.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…c89abacked Yes | 7c | 198.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…8df8backed Yes | 12c | 184.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…1ff3backed Yes | 8c | 184.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.