Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f8e0a84a1895f6293c508b501779a81b842ee8393019f15eb161ec41c50b94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $626,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $626,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 38,571$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.32 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 21,142$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.02 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,794$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 15,763$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 0c | 13,690$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 13,656$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,100$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 10,740$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 9.3%13 W · 127 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +642.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…c4f0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 8,953$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 8c | 8,095$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.94 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 8,016$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 11c | 7,569$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.35 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 7c | 7,471$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.29 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 3c | 7,170$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 6c | 6,406$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.63 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…ae53backed Yes | 14c | 6,044$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.66 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,161$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,995$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 2c | 4,314$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 13c | 3,698$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.46 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 5c | 3,633$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,549$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 3,468$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.48 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,376$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,232$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 3,036$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…3192backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…3648backed Yes | 3c | 2,795$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,565$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4f4dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,448$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 4c | 2,420$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 2,410$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,309$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.84 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…151ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,045$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 10c | 1,944$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 1,891$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 1,849$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 1,764$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 11c | 1,722$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,636$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 1,515$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 1,463$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 3c | 1,462$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 1c | 1,457$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,449$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 5c | 1,445$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 2c | 1,431$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,415$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 4c | 1,364$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 17c | 1,350$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.98 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,348$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,281$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,189$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,185$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 4c | 1,097$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 1,059$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…f259backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…2b75backed Yes | 2c | 970.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 10c | 959.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 5c | 941.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 17c | 899.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 8c | 899.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 868.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 859.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…9dd7backed Yes | 2c | 852.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +223.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 844.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 10c | 833.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e6…8d32backed Yes | 2c | 820$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 6c | 811.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 2c | 804.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…8191backed Yes | 3c | 795.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…33a0backed Yes | 2c | 755.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…e24ebacked Yes | 1c | 750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 9c | 749.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 8c | 741.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 2c | 729.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 2c | 717.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 5c | 700.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.