Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd15588af6698ade328f0856cfc24b82acd814b6c128fbc1860020353f89d671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $659,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $694,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 509 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 79c | 63,528$50,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,361.57 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 40c | 21,516$8,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,862.29 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 39c | 17,804$6,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,899.8 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 25c | 14,635$3,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,987.43 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 28c | 13,894$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,064.55 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 22c | 10,137$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,885.65 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 30c | 9,565$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,714.92 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 24c | 8,091$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,170.61 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 21c | 7,373$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,803.72 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 45c | 6,779$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,761.24 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 69c | 6,395$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,423.33 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…2e1cbacked Yes | 33c | 6,196$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 30c | 5,818$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,053.15 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 24c | 5,802$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.88 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 36c | 5,416$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.71 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 32c | 5,106$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.03 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed No | 74c | 4,433$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 76c | 4,315$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,274.57 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 62c | 3,885$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.51 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 70c | 3,766$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.08 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 62c | 3,702$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.95 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 36c | 3,681$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.82 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 26c | 3,633$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.6 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 3,552$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.43 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 74c | 3,522$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.48 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 66c | 3,355$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227.62 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.98 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 26c | 2,908$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.45 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 21c | 2,812$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.32 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 36c | 2,774$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.5 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 29c | 2,749$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.08 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03cf…7d11backed Yes | 18c | 2,642$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 55c | 2,571$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.61 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 12c | 2,398$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.63 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 22c | 2,244$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.8 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,242$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.51 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 37c | 2,240$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.61 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 24c | 2,162$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.73 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 29c | 2,036$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.67 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.97 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…f89bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,956$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.17 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,940$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.88 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 45c | 1,889$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.46 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,804$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.74 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,799$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.72 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…2fa3backed Yes | 17c | 1,733$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…a57cbacked No | 1c | 1,722$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,692$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 25c | 1,608$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.47 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes | 34c | 1,585$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.81 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,561$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.61 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…50d7backed Yes | 65c | 1,538$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 65c | 1,533$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No | 72c | 1,492$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.6 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked No | 70c | 1,481$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.28 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 38c | 1,465$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.14 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 36c | 1,447$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.65 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…ae53backed Yes | 46c | 1,419$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.95 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 38c | 1,380$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.82 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b9…ad8fbacked No | 79c | 1,363$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 25c | 1,245$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.12 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 26c | 1,243$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.85 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 29c | 1,211$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.97 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 1,158$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.94 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 17c | 1,158$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.05 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 27c | 1,148$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.76 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…d145backed Yes | 18c | 1,144$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…59d0backed Yes | 41c | 1,127$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 22c | 1,090$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.44 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 18c | 1,059$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.88 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 32c | 1,005$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.62 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.13 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…89d6backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 25c | 978.81$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.51 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 65c | 965.99$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.95 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed No | 69c | 923.13$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.57 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 25c | 915$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.49 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…5715backed Yes | 41c | 899.99$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 898.32$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.02 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 41c | 895.74$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.41 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 19c | 859.83$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.61 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 18c | 821.56$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.75 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 815$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.08 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…f259backed Yes | 29c | 799.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed No | 72c | 773$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.11 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 14c | 760.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.52 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 759.62$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.64 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 16c | 750.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.14 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 35c | 750.22$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 19c | 749.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 40c | 745.15$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.83 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 33c | 742.32$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.84 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 77c | 734.94$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.77 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 32c | 710$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.8 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 14c | 707.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.63 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.