TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$659,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$694,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,487 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 509 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes79c63,528$50,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,361.572259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes40c21,516$8,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,862.2966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes39c17,804$6,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,899.813430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes25c14,635$3,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,987.433267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes28c13,894$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,064.5557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x760e…119ebacked Yes22c10,137$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,885.654233.3%14 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes30c9,565$2,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,714.928425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes24c8,091$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,170.6131621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes21c7,373$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,803.7210036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes45c6,779$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.2431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No69c6,395$4,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,423.3356429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c87…2e1cbacked Yes33c6,196$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes30c5,818$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,053.1514332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No24c5,802$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.881,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes36c5,416$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.7121034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes32c5,106$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.0346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5359…6b35backed No74c4,433$3,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.491637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No76c4,315$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.5720735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes62c3,885$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.5128526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes70c3,766$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.0824815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No62c3,702$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.9511556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes36c3,681$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.8263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes26c3,633$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.66222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes40c3,552$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.4376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No74c3,522$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.4816056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No66c3,355$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.6254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes14c3,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.9836411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes26c2,908$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.457211.1%8 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes21c2,812$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,221.3212411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes36c2,774$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.513513.3%18 W · 117 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes29c2,749$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.085141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No3c2,666$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.982128.6%6 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+299.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x03cf…7d11backed Yes18c2,642$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.37922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No55c2,571$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.6134425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No12c2,398$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6331242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes22c2,244$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.81,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes25c2,242$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.5127417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes37c2,240$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.617028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes24c2,162$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.7348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes29c2,036$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.6717919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.9722610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466b…f89bbacked Yes31c1,956$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.174030%12 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes30c1,940$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.884617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes45c1,889$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.4633527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes37c1,804$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.743930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes31c1,799$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.724122%9 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4180…2fa3backed Yes17c1,733$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+57.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40f2…a57cbacked No1c1,722$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c1,692$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.968320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes25c1,608$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.4714137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes34c1,585$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.818420.2%17 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes52c1,561$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.6132613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e75…50d7backed Yes65c1,538$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.341233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No65c1,533$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No72c1,492$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.660127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked No70c1,481$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.2812213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes38c1,465$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.1417723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes36c1,447$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.6541017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bae…ae53backed Yes46c1,419$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.953625%9 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes38c1,380$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.8215435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b9…ad8fbacked No79c1,363$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes25c1,245$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.121,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes26c1,243$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.855240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes29c1,211$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.9726314.8%39 W · 224 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No75c1,158$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.9443933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes17c1,158$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.0526722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes27c1,148$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.7618424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…d145backed Yes18c1,144$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.124427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6533…59d0backed Yes41c1,127$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes22c1,090$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.4434215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes18c1,059$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.8846137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes32c1,005$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.629626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes32c1,000$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.1318822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8407025.7%18 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9102…89d6backed No75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes13c1,000$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87015413%20 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes25c978.81$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.5116532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes65c965.99$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.958925.8%23 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed No69c923.13$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.577939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes25c915$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.4949919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bc…5715backed Yes41c899.99$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c898.32$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.029058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes41c895.74$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.4162713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes19c859.83$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.6159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes18c821.56$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.7588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c815$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.0826167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8992…f259backed Yes29c799.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.991118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No72c773$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.116634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes14c760.52$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.5211721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c759.62$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.6431565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes16c750.71$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.1488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes35c750.22$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.653327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes19c749.96$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.971533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes40c745.15$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.831816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes33c742.32$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.8450828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No77c734.94$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.7722142.5%94 W · 127 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes32c710$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.86825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes14c707.12$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.6325617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.