Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb531ab396b1766693cf5ad0ff76976cfca7d255a90e666f51b74f359c09699ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $602,661 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 7c | 45,515$3,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.64 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 22,558$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.18 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 10c | 15,027$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.76 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 14,740$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.06 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 13,934$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 0c | 13,381$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 11,266$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.99 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 21c | 10,407$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.78 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…c7b8backed Yes | 2c | 8,787$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 1c | 8,622$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 7,960$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.63 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 29c | 7,261$2,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.93 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.87 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 6,879$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.75 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…c3c0backed Yes | 25c | 5,795$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.54 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 16c | 5,115$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.26 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 38c | 4,930$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.18 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 23c | 4,902$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.65 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 2c | 4,520$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…5451backed Yes | 1c | 4,211$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 68c | 4,004$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.1 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 3,742$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.47 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…f259backed Yes | 5c | 3,652$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 15c | 3,627$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.85 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 3,383$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,215$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 6c | 3,100$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 72c | 2,976$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.18 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,871$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,753$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,742$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,626$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.94 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 16c | 2,530$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.05 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 2,495$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.23 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 5c | 2,234$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,051$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 2,038$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.22 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…9966backed Yes | 3c | 1,986$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,818$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 27c | 1,716$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.74 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 11c | 1,670$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 3c | 1,638$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 7c | 1,564$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,471$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,439$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1a31backed No | 49c | 1,429$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.56 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,352$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.51 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,326$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,302$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,291$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,232$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 18c | 1,184$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…10c9backed Yes | 8c | 1,172$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…316bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 16c | 1,108$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…b624backed Yes | 3c | 1,087$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…180cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,053$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.23 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 77c | 999.99$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 12c | 956.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 14c | 951.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 2c | 920.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 24c | 895.6$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.57 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 24c | 833.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 4c | 801.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 7c | 781.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 12c | 772.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 33c | 749.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…5815backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 680.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 4c | 650.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked No | 76c | 650.01$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.98 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…50fabacked Yes | 4c | 646.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 644$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 6c | 622.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…2b75backed Yes | 2c | 591.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…6520backed Yes | 6c | 515.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 4c | 514.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b73…3b4bbacked Yes | 8c | 511.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…e7bebacked Yes | 3c | 494.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 16c | 493.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 485.37$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.34 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 482.92$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.