TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,214 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c2,586$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.362,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes2c1,544$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3766222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes12c1,297$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4813014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes11c1,100$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes18c999.96$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9922610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes25c939$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed Yes25c855$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked No75c775$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed No75c773$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32f…eef8backed Yes14c742.29$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes8c723.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.181189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes32c719.98$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.692128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes20c698.69$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.741241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes13c658.58$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7924732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes8c655.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6224710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes30c649.94$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.186631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes17c598.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes11c567.47$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0450828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes14c501.8$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.687714.3%11 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c463$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c458.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No73c454.59$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.952972.4%21 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c444.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.631,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes23c425.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c416.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.592,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes10c410$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes14c394.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.99849.5%8 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c391.13$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7879735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x172d…a2c2backed Yes5c390.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+160.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes10c372.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes8c369.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1652619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes18c356.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c333.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9437830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc48…04edbacked Yes8c318.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251625%4 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes19c312.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes12c301.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3115430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2713926.6%37 W · 102 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1725617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c255.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.921,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked Yes8c251.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa279…c30dbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No75c246$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes12c236$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ff…9552backed Yes30c229.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.79333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes19c204.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes28c203.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1253…422fbacked Yes5c200.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d77…523dbacked Yes20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404928.6%14 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No78c199.98$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes26c199.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.171833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c197.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3139518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes18c194.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2125127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No76c193.91$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5231565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes26c188.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c186.43$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6426167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No65c185$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.751968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes28c178.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7636…ecd2backed Yes26c166.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.814233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…188dbacked Yes8c142.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes34c141.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4843027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes18c132.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2433415.6%52 W · 282 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes20c130.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f83…0e8dbacked Yes15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5c7…d61bbacked Yes28c101.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2142719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b05…712abacked Yes12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes19c99.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes29c99.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.993644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes11c99.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115819%11 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x979b…53bbbacked Yes11c97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa793…9059backed Yes22c95.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe685…f72cbacked Yes28c95.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes11c94.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.414168.3%28 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes23c93.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9236018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4955…e949backed Yes11c92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes16c91.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe956…988fbacked Yes13c91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes19c84.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.122339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b0…59bbbacked Yes27c81.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497f…43e4backed Yes23c80.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47122.5%16 W · 55 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf811…de46backed Yes16c79.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6e…5a68backed Yes13c77.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes22c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes16c72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7219527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad36…f79bbacked Yes22c67.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked Yes18c66.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes18c66.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed Yes18c66.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c65.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0551018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.917818.5%33 W · 145 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes22c57.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40a1…c62fbacked Yes30c55.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes24c55.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.388622.1%19 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes20c53.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf141…67b0backed Yes21c53.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c50.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0351845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.