TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,102 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc360…2b34backed Yes2c5,980$96 inLost-$95.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab2a…aa5cbacked Yes2c4,020$64 inLost-$64.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,931$22 inLost-$22.112727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,347$24 inLost-$24.142,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes1c1,255$13 inLost-$13.0713014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes2c936.79$20 inLost-$19.6625617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes10c931.81$93 inLost-$93.1822610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1253…422fbacked Yes4c702.52$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes2c684.27$13 inLost-$13.361216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes2c667.47$13 inLost-$12.6350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes14c499.73$69 inLost-$68.627714.3%11 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes2c461.7$11 inLost-$10.8176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes3c403.49$12 inLost-$11.9113119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes5c394.16$20 inLost-$20.161,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes6c196.51$12 inLost-$12.15535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes11c99.99$11 inLost-$11.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes13c87.46$11 inLost-$11.13221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaae…d0f5backed Yes15c71.43$11 inLost-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.