TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,396 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,514$12 inLost-$11.891,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes1c1,167$14 inLost-$13.7313014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,050$20 inLost-$19.752,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes3c744.58$26 inLost-$25.785535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes4c299.99$12 inLost-$121330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes5c217.14$10 inLost-$1013315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaae…d0f5backed Yes9c141.23$12 inLost-$12.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ee…1e45backed Yes8c132.04$10 inLost-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes13c107.69$14 inLost-$142532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3527…1ff1backed Yes19c100$19 inLost-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe685…f72cbacked Yes17c85.16$14 inLost-$14.25728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No80c67.1$54 inWon+$13.4326167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes28c53.57$15 inLost-$157326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.