Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e96cc38dfc3a3df94efe416f1975df4fdf6f0989d0d80378428cfb51147777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,181$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,383$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…b222backed Yes | 0c | 4,441$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 1c | 3,585$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…5914backed Yes | 0c | 3,395$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 26c | 1,846$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.2 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 23c | 1,703$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.06 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…7a35backed Yes | 2c | 1,314$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab02…f76bbacked No | 40c | 1,288$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 11c | 1,150$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed No | 36c | 920.73$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed No | 79c | 890.61$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 67c | 778.81$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6621…9e61backed Yes | 56c | 722.5$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…8437backed Yes | 3c | 716.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed Yes | 73c | 594$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…478ebacked Yes | 23c | 574.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 58c | 512.75$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.89 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…5dbabacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed No | 55c | 467.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 16c | 467.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 449.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 420$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.53 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 76c | 394.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 390$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.67 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…3572backed Yes | 60c | 378.04$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed No | 3c | 337.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +1,299.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 64c | 320.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 295.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 263.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 228.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed No | 36c | 208.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…4e66backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…90e6backed Yes | 51c | 195$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 19c | 190.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 173.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 42c | 135.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…c278backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…5f0dbacked Yes | 62c | 99.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 99.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 50c | 93.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 62c | 87.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…01cabacked Yes | 71c | 83.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…3256backed Yes | 48c | 73.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 50.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…ca86backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Yes | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…2632backed No | 31c | 48.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 74c | 47.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 51c | 33.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 37c | 32.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…9c79backed Yes | 66c | 30.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…c8c9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…6e44backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…02b6backed Yes | 63c | 26.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x311a…447cbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 49c | 22.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…6a4abacked Yes | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…60c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…173abacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…702fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…8a97backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…7518backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.