Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3edeff512795e39e1afc078bbc87988e9dba6e69cab471d6398455722a171890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,480$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,346$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 1,289$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,007$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 744.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 6c | 712.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…4e66backed Yes | 2c | 632.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 416.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…5f5abacked Yes | 4c | 357.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 12c | 318.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 11c | 248.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 191$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 12c | 176.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…10f3backed Yes | 7c | 159.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…c583backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed Yes | 8c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6e…3649backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…6ef8backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…0e7fbacked Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.