Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa342f4df74dc3079ec08e429c96cfd1d5456aaffa96698dcc60110d275d9f5ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 10c | 2,253$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 11c | 909.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed No | 25c | 792.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 74c | 668.26$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 26c | 661.13$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 45c | 605$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 11c | 550.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 72c | 537.02$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.45 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 67c | 400.93$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 55c | 384$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 43c | 370$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 23c | 365.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.89 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 317.1$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…61d9backed No | 16c | 312.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 57c | 303$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 73c | 300$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…4e66backed Yes | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 34c | 298.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 57c | 295$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…3731backed Yes | 79c | 291.64$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 69c | 285.84$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 78c | 263.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 20c | 240.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 34c | 231.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 43c | 226$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 55c | 221$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 72c | 209.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked No | 6c | 199.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 79c | 189.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes | 43c | 157$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 23c | 156.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 57c | 155$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 7c | 153.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 121.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 44c | 106.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 105.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…5f0dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 87.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 76.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 20c | 59.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…4174backed Yes | 64c | 54.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 33c | 52.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…ca86backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 46.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed Yes | 33c | 45.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 26c | 45.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…a76abacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 79c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…ce74backed No | 72c | 34.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 37c | 32.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3232…9a60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 27.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc7…0793backed Yes | 79c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 67c | 24.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…5645backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.