TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Spurs, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,333 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b90…2194backed Warriors52c6,000$3,120 inWon+$2,88019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Spurs48c3,847$1,847 inLost-$1,846.6140350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs48c724.71$348 inLost-$347.862,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spurs48c683.82$326 inLost-$325.945,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Warriors53c566.6$300 inWon+$266.625347%119 W · 134 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96cb…df2ebacked Spurs52c384.62$200 inLost-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs53c297.88$156 inLost-$156.4926545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Spurs54c277.78$150 inLost-$1506642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Spurs53c135.85$72 inLost-$7233554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Warriors48c121.15$58 inWon+$631,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe28f…be21backed Spurs50c81.57$41 inLost-$415635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Spurs54c55.56$30 inLost-$302951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Spurs48c50$24 inLost-$242,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Spurs52c38.46$20 inLost-$2015245.4%69 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80c…6093backed Warriors53c35.55$19 inWon+$16.711060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Warriors49c34.87$17 inWon+$17.7823845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a55…fe8bbacked Spurs54c32.26$17 inLost-$17.4216552.1%86 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Warriors56c30$17 inWon+$13.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Warriors46c21.74$10 inWon+$11.7497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.