TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,507 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb552…94a8backed Under52c8,348$4,327 inLost-$4,326.62,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c6,566$3,197 inWon+$3,368.944,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Over48c4,586$2,199 inWon+$2,387.035547.3%26 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under52c4,340$2,257 inLost-$2,256.7244352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under52c2,483$1,291 inLost-$1,291.161,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over47c2,234$1,050 inWon+$1,184.0449246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Over48c1,771$850 inWon+$920.8341649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under53c999.98$530 inLost-$529.9945647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c992.58$471 inWon+$521.173,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under53c944$500 inLost-$500.3295651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Over48c770.57$369 inWon+$401.1730446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c721.35$373 inLost-$372.869,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c526.63$287 inWon+$239.678,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…896cbacked Over47c426$200 inWon+$225.787944.3%35 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over48c292$140 inWon+$151.842,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Over49c244.9$120 inWon+$124.99051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4387…2b3dbacked Under10c209.42$21 inLost-$20.943046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.0814547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under51c192.3$98 inLost-$98.0763447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under53c188.68$100 inLost-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under8c151$12 inLost-$12.081,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c139.22$69 inLost-$69.433,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under52c124.07$65 inLost-$64.711,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under53c98$51 inLost-$51.451,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2480…1df9backed Over47c97.87$46 inWon+$51.87875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+48.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under52c94.79$50 inLost-$49.533653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over45c58.53$26 inWon+$32.195,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under51c58.16$30 inLost-$29.666,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4513…3449backed Over49c50$25 inWon+$25.56848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over49c50$25 inWon+$25.545251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Under53c37.74$20 inLost-$205147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24dd…12afbacked Under43c33$14 inLost-$14.191637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-41.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Under52c30.76$16 inLost-$1635049.4%173 W · 177 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf1…0b3dbacked Under53c30$16 inLost-$15.93754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Under52c30$16 inLost-$15.641251%210 W · 202 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c28.89$13 inWon+$15.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over47c27$13 inWon+$14.312544%11 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under52c26.73$14 inLost-$13.8795047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…2caebacked Over49c24.52$12 inWon+$12.512454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.