Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: James Duckworth vs Jannik Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d26160ee93829eae1d662ec06705ad9a3f606b95ea3de14db500505c331c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Duckworth, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Duckworth | 1c | 35,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.6 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Duckworth | 1c | 33,171$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.88 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Duckworth | 1c | 25,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Duckworth | 0c | 24,560$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Duckworth | 1c | 22,727$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duckworth | 1c | 12,098$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Duckworth | 2c | 6,194$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Duckworth | 1c | 5,441$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Duckworth | 1c | 4,433$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Duckworth | 0c | 3,595$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Duckworth | 1c | 3,101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Duckworth | 1c | 2,854$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Duckworth | 1c | 2,825$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Duckworth | 1c | 2,786$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed Duckworth | 1c | 2,701$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +224.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e9…e33ebacked Duckworth | 1c | 1,857$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +166%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Duckworth | 1c | 1,508$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Duckworth | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Duckworth | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…0024backed Duckworth | 1c | 1,334$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…c181backed Duckworth | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Duckworth | 1c | 1,306$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Duckworth | 1c | 1,154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Duckworth | 1c | 985.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Duckworth | 1c | 935.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Duckworth | 1c | 728.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Duckworth | 2c | 571.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Duckworth | 2c | 441.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: James Duckworth vs Jannik Sinnerthis page
- Duckworth vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Duckworth vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Duckworth vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Duckworth vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Duckworth vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.