Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7209a763a31fc473c88fee126341fe9e12d24f8e10ce7956c39fd149380089b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 25,542$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.7 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 0c | 20,782$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 0c | 12,779$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 2c | 8,142$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed Yes | 1c | 6,462$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,841$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,174$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 5,040$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,035$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 4,946$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 4,834$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…d970backed Yes | 0c | 4,321$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 4,120$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 2c | 3,767$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…e0c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,319$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 3,158$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 2,289$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,112$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe440…dbbcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,872$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,767$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,762$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…cd35backed Yes | 4c | 1,321$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…45a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,298$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 1c | 1,291$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,107$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,081$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…0eb5backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f54…93d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 1c | 998.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49a…e985backed Yes | 7c | 990.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 4c | 830$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…6b71backed Yes | 5c | 824.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 2c | 765.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes | 4c | 760.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 2c | 738.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 11.5%9 W · 69 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…6f87backed Yes | 5c | 734$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…c065backed Yes | 5c | 699$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a72…a524backed Yes | 4c | 697.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…f5aabacked Yes | 3c | 638.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 3c | 550.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Yes | 4c | 543.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…8489backed Yes | 4c | 530.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c62…a205backed Yes | 4c | 468.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…2839backed Yes | 4c | 427.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…7085backed Yes | 5c | 419.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334e…708cbacked Yes | 5c | 379.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 6c | 361.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 4c | 347.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…bcc6backed Yes | 5c | 343.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 3c | 335.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…f812backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…8448backed Yes | 6c | 323.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…eca0backed Yes | 4c | 313.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 7c | 290.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…8a39backed Yes | 4c | 276.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…285fbacked Yes | 4c | 262.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 6c | 247.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…9a3bbacked Yes | 6c | 202.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 5c | 199.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…0063backed Yes | 6c | 181.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.