Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3099b663448c5ff0a372c74f1529ee017d4e80d70ba44dd7444279bd408363e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 9,210$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.02 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 5,890$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 5,731$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,800$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 7c | 4,444$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.87 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,431$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 6c | 3,453$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.85 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 3c | 3,045$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 2,710$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 2,527$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,122$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…d273backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,829$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.29 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…1c85backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,411$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…bb0fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,263$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49a…e985backed Yes | 9c | 1,209$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 1,142$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,136$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 5c | 1,003$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…025cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…8448backed Yes | 13c | 913.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…60c3backed Yes | 11c | 906.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 904.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…cd35backed Yes | 12c | 856$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 8c | 844.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 12c | 831.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 5c | 807.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 12c | 803.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 17c | 703.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…6a28backed Yes | 9c | 685.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 654.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…816ebacked Yes | 17c | 609.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 8c | 521.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 441.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed Yes | 12c | 427.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7f…c6dbbacked Yes | 9c | 423.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3710backed Yes | 5c | 409.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…45a0backed Yes | 10c | 401.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…8489backed Yes | 16c | 366.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe440…dbbcbacked Yes | 6c | 349.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 5c | 349.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…3753backed Yes | 13c | 348.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…f812backed Yes | 18c | 337.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 5c | 334.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…6b71backed Yes | 18c | 328.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes | 9c | 326.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef5dbacked Yes | 6c | 323.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a72…a524backed Yes | 9c | 323.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…1e9bbacked Yes | 16c | 312.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Yes | 18c | 311.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 9c | 284.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334e…708cbacked Yes | 11c | 282.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…3d98backed Yes | 15c | 275.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…787bbacked Yes | 18c | 258.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…8a87backed Yes | 7c | 255.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 89 | 16.9%15 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes | 9c | 240.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Yes | 14c | 240$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 5c | 239.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…e0c0backed Yes | 11c | 234.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…2c90backed Yes | 12c | 233.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…958ebacked Yes | 14c | 228.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 6c | 220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…cac3backed Yes | 9c | 217.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 9c | 215.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 12c | 215.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +11%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 18c | 214.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…bd15backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 20c | 197.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 10c | 193.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 6c | 191.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 15c | 178.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 9c | 176.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes | 15c | 175.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 17c | 173.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 9c | 172.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 16c | 169.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 18c | 168.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…9ef3backed Yes | 12c | 167.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…1b67backed Yes | 12c | 149.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 13c | 143.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…959dbacked Yes | 19c | 137.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 12c | 134.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…f5aabacked Yes | 13c | 131.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…5df2backed Yes | 10c | 124.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes | 16c | 123.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…bcc6backed Yes | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…c23abacked Yes | 18c | 108.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe372…e651backed Yes | 12c | 104.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 19c | 104.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…2f4fbacked Yes | 10c | 101.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 20c | 100.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe819…25d2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.