Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfccbaa3cf7d8e4ba3295248f9c38d20f4966e5bc612688be6f8a6897889e420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $686,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $633,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 4c | 186,121$8,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,011.44 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…722bbacked Yes | 1c | 63,954$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 1c | 37,568$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…083fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,061$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 66c | 20,983$13,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,893.34 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…ae22backed Yes | 0c | 17,460$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 3c | 12,425$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.44 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 36c | 12,167$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.15 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 11,389$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 70c | 10,796$7,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,508.81 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…9cf7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 64c | 7,127$4,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.41 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 21c | 7,000$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.3 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 51c | 5,832$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.2 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 1c | 4,921$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 4,776$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.85 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,107$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.01 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c3…9e36backed No | 72c | 3,700$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…d3d2backed Yes | 28c | 3,700$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 68c | 3,451$2,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.77 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…816ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,017$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Yes | 2c | 2,750$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 16c | 2,417$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.51 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…0001backed Yes | 1c | 2,355$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 3c | 2,300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 20.8%20 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…dd48backed No | 64c | 2,292$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 65c | 2,247$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.06 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 23c | 2,227$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.52 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 66c | 2,077$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.48 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 21c | 2,071$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.28 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked Yes | 1c | 2,004$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 71c | 1,999$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,982$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.3 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…70afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,877$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 31c | 1,685$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.87 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…bc83backed Yes | 1c | 1,464$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 48c | 1,434$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.93 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 1,426$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 28c | 1,353$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,287$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,267$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 18c | 1,195$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed No | 34c | 1,195$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 54c | 1,121$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.13 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…9f9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 74c | 952.82$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 17c | 939.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 63c | 900.97$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.33 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 866.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Yes | 17c | 849.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…d62abacked Yes | 29c | 768.17$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 760$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…7834backed Yes | 2c | 743.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked No | 77c | 719.23$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 24c | 683.16$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 59c | 675.09$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.17 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes | 23c | 672.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +97%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 30c | 671.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 31c | 648.41$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…6457backed Yes | 22c | 599.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 16c | 594.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 38c | 587.61$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…958ebacked Yes | 24c | 555.16$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes | 71c | 550.88$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes | 20c | 548.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ad…37efbacked Yes | 32c | 523.58$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 481.45$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Yes | 30c | 480$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 34c | 471.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 35c | 432.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 432.26$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 14c | 429.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 68c | 397$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.64 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 45c | 386.46$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 385.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…76d7backed Yes | 73c | 374.69$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 27c | 369.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…bb0fbacked Yes | 35c | 359.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes | 71c | 359.4$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…8489backed Yes | 29c | 345.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 36c | 341.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…8a87backed Yes | 36c | 338.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 89 | 16.9%15 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 43c | 329.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…1811backed Yes | 65c | 317.28$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 18c | 312.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…ff0ebacked Yes | 28c | 311.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 33c | 306.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…974abacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 35c | 299.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.99 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes | 22c | 280.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…284fbacked No | 78c | 269$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed No | 27c | 266.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.