Ukraine · resolved market
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56629a9e321bc5116c67b90e5fe683403b52ad05b3ff0a07473ab3305f66161a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb8c…8b9ebacked Yes | 38c | 25,077$9,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,529.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a5…192ebacked No | 62c | 25,077$15,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,529.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 72c | 11,442$8,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,147.61 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 31c | 5,114$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.68 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 8c | 4,100$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.82 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 21c | 1,868$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.86 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,495$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 25c | 1,020$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.83 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 19c | 1,014$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 11c | 871.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 80c | 631.64$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 77c | 584.94$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 29c | 572.89$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.79 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 474.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…20debacked No | 77c | 433$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 430.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 419.84$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 328.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 295.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 269.08$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…f4b3backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 34c | 242.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 22c | 203.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes | 28c | 178.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…a22abacked Yes | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c2…c4a3backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…4c13backed No | 77c | 127.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…107cbacked No | 76c | 125.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d2…4c10backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 31c | 121$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 25c | 108.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 20c | 99.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 21c | 96.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 93.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 76.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…3c2abacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 31c | 70.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 74c | 65.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 24c | 60.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 25c | 58.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 62c | 46.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 69cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 62c | 40.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 25c | 39.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…c9efbacked No | 75c | 27.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 70c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7eb…8c32backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.