Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1B committed to the Gensyn public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d93a6e606162966d8d4a62b959e5141efb9172b9281a4964cc0ca902b432ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x317d…8812backed Yes | 3c | 21,332$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f81…49e6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed Yes | 1c | 3,569$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…5e07backed Yes | 4c | 3,399$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…7a0ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,275$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…8ba3backed Yes | 2c | 3,208$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,390$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…70fabacked Yes | 5c | 2,208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 2c | 1,427$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,424$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,062$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…b655backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 4c | 979.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 12c | 849.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 838.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1B committed to the Gensyn public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Yes won
- Over $200M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.