Token Launches · resolved market
Over $600M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7c7d5e43b5dd6b90e7c1eaa1508323f2815c8a40568411d5f1eff17e27e538d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,554$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x317d…8812backed Yes | 8c | 9,523$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…dec7backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed Yes | 1c | 2,528$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed Yes | 4c | 2,306$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7d…e7c9backed Yes | 9c | 2,301$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,376$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 8c | 1,290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…058abacked Yes | 4c | 1,280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…70fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,082$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,073$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…2903backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…5e07backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 801.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 5c | 668.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 632.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…f4c8backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 6c | 475.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 297.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 45c | 224.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…d1ddbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 55c | 162.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $600M committed to the Gensyn public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Yes won
- Over $1B committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $400M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.