Token Launches · resolved market
Over $400M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d4d619cfb748d50d159031bea808d26e17391bb576aa190ade3878a682667e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x317d…8812backed Yes | 12c | 9,916$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…484dbacked Yes | 30c | 8,634$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…bb48backed Yes | 1c | 7,180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 7,180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 13c | 6,387$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.37 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 11c | 4,335$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.87 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…dec7backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed Yes | 11c | 2,990$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 54c | 2,735$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.36 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…9b04backed Yes | 15c | 2,188$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7d…e7c9backed Yes | 17c | 1,901$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…f586backed Yes | 10c | 1,877$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.62 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,613$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 9c | 1,600$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,519$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,385$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,288$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked No | 79c | 1,260$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 1,258$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes | 13c | 1,209$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,119$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…b9a8backed Yes | 9c | 1,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…2903backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…b350backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 78c | 1,000$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.87 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…f4c8backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -69%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 971.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 14c | 819.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…70fabacked Yes | 26c | 583.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 13c | 538.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 21c | 505$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.4 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…058abacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…5e07backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 493.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 14c | 450$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 8c | 356.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Yes | 14c | 297.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…3843backed Yes | 10c | 267.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…1453backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 240$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…d1ddbacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…462dbacked Yes | 15c | 150.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 141.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…1412backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 80c | 98.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…b571backed Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 75.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636e…d4aabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $400M committed to the Gensyn public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Yes won
- Over $1B committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $600M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
- Over $800M committed to the Gensyn public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.