TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,848 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4155…35cebacked Yes19c31,766$5,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,965.632441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes20c3,423$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.0117017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No70c3,005$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.7117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c2,198$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.310632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes21c2,000$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.812240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes55c1,811$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7628528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c1,580$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.1415641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked Yes18c1,504$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.651631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes2c1,363$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6810814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,346$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes40c1,238$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes26c1,100$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.042653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes31c1,044$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320488.3%4 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a7…b884backed Yes56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50bd…962abacked No33c996.1$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.17450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+76.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed Yes67c937.91$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes60c848.9$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.35044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes18c844.52$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes16c830$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.712936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked No69c724.8$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.916331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes73c700$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5082737%10 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes75c603.81$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.47862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes15c571$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.653836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked No34c547.87$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.311637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No59c525.73$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9413337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c494.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.812781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c437.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.581,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e8…9141backed No33c403.49$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63da…9146backed Yes3c380$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.021540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes12c359.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1713321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Yes33c340$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.22433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes10c334.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.113132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes30c333.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes17c330$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.55920.3%12 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4860…2690backed Yes41c292.45$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes56c284.44$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes76c277.84$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.164553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c7…09d4backed Yes32c268.27$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes15c253$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.951643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes24c247.54$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd981…2da8backed Yes75c243.94$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3130%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No76c239.19$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.261060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No55c238.87$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1916741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes76c229.15$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6118746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c223.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4748414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9024…1b00backed No43c197$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes15c170$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No75c158.06$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5420841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes31c151$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.816015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a0…5676backed Yes59c150$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ee…7b86backed No43c145$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No32c136.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3713130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x207b…7283backed Yes73c136.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.47per pick59cpaid-83.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5505…50b1backed No43c136$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes15c135.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.543119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f9…f662backed No43c134$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes18c131.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes62c124.32$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.215149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b2…f2e2backed No43c124$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1822…5fc1backed No43c122$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No47c113.58$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5313851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f4…08cbbacked Yes73c109.6$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3630…22c9backed Yes64c106.65$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.131353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e8…4001backed Yes28c105.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No74c104.42$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1320668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9980…1a35backed Yes57c104$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No74c101.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.352821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x528d…dddfbacked Yes57c101$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fec…728ebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a9…01e6backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac9…d755backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes25c99.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5c…05debacked Yes57c97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5f07backed Yes57c97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes27c92.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992532%8 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked No30c90.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8812631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccc…9588backed Yes57c89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b0…fd36backed Yes57c89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2961…1ec7backed Yes57c88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9112…7b6abacked Yes57c87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes36c70.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6309…41bbbacked Yes57c66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No78c65.79$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.673053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes18c65.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.661346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x193b…572cbacked Yes73c63.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No37c63.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.546152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbb…b157backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes28c60.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6519532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.413650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b6…73b3backed No43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a70…cba6backed No75c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ea7…60babacked No69c55.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes65c53.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.013729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08dc…61d9backed No46c51.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x559a…c9a3backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No40c48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0220850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.