Movies · resolved market
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250fc5b968b0e14f4ebef6eb251fc17db510e1b7446066a899726a1fdfc924ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,014 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70a7…b884backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…16debacked Yes | 5c | 3,690$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,346$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 1c | 2,471$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…9141backed Yes | 5c | 2,213$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,202$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 4c | 2,089$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,011$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,388$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,212$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 993.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 953.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 1c | 907.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked Yes | 3c | 899.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…945fbacked Yes | 10c | 742.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 588.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 64c | 559.79$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 5c | 549.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 5c | 505$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 440.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…4cb0backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes | 3c | 392.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…eefbbacked Yes | 9c | 221.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…02edbacked Yes | 12c | 129.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…6a3cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78a…9f65backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac4…a8c9backed Yes | 46c | 37.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?this page
- Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.