TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x092f…18acbacked Yes0c6,439$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.03229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c3,882$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.843859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes0c2,903$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7118033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked Yes22c2,037$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.752227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes62c1,334$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.675756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes10c1,250$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12415032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No53c999.96$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes4c737.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.848739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes20c590.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6515155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes44c543.75$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8711918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes52c533.85$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6615…665dbacked Yes66c500.92$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes65c467.72$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4428320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…30fcbacked No67c447.25$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab2…05c7backed Yes51c355$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1862…734abacked Yes30c349.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+89.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed No34c299.63$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.762437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+68.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked No46c299.48$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.123432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c288.8$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.981,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb498…5fbdbacked No55c274$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2b…1206backed No52c268$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+143.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ac…a2eebacked Yes49c242.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed Yes42c237.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed No49c204.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.49825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ec…9873backed Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cee…8bb4backed No53c199$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes48c198.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.43625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b66…002bbacked Yes22c190$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.83043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed No37c190$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.551216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaec…dd15backed No54c183.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f15…fb01backed No56c179.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.391136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No52c176.8$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7717238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77aa…e6ecbacked Yes41c174$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa382…b9dbbacked Yes45c172$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x967c…a16dbacked Yes30c164.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f37…6dc5backed No59c153.82$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf645…b8c2backed Yes40c151.07$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc451…8841backed No56c148$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9897…5e06backed Yes39c139$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d9…e579backed Yes47c137.71$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ada…51bcbacked No52c115$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No54c112.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.396842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd438…d01abacked Yes50c108.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc590…ad79backed Yes44c105$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f0…9e66backed No48c104.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb897…3894backed Yes45c102$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe91b…eaabbacked No61c102$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7033…163ebacked Yes28c101$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes56c100.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4964…4fddbacked No45c99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.91560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb73d…0b78backed No59c94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x205d…1d7bbacked No38c87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2401…1c38backed No46c87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9c…515cbacked No44c84.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaed0…ff24backed No59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c12…7765backed No54c78.43$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.081216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed No53c77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c74.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.916854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.919436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa929…f69abacked Yes72c69.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e69…aec4backed Yes62c68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe629…fa06backed No59c64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5434…51dfbacked Yes26c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878b…171ebacked Yes31c63.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52de…6b01backed No53c63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No46c62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc077…ca40backed No44c62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa704…f953backed Yes47c62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fea…904cbacked No38c61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…81cbbacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cda…ccfbbacked No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes50c59.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.644052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes29c59.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9931840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfd…158abacked No72c57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1baa…187bbacked Yes61c56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ae9…42adbacked Yes56c55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c57…29adbacked Yes45c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6c…efd8backed Yes47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee55…ba1bbacked No49c54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab7…286ebacked Yes45c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfc9…d219backed No39c54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41be…3677backed Yes39c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853e…5e10backed Yes46c53.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x511b…22b7backed No49c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcc…632fbacked No39c52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7604…a01ebacked Yes48c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe506…0723backed Yes41c52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d13…dd00backed Yes39c52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3836…3dd2backed No55c52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488a…5581backed Yes45c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1712…385dbacked No38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea7…869dbacked No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.