TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,525,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,742,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,525,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8795…7544backed No13c301,020$39,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,313.589334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No4c264,922$11,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,898.4480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No10c245,029$25,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,550.294459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed No0c239,999$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No23c192,835$43,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,679.31915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed No6c110,000$6,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,824.981010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-76.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No5c102,481$5,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,078.456633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes76c68,051$51,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,339.733525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…295ebacked No6c63,949$3,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,536.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6b…9056backed No9c63,199$5,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,604333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No4c60,335$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.0715230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No2c60,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes60c45,201$27,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,149.742842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No10c44,179$4,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,417.872429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No13c42,000$5,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,257.6425337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0d9…4c69backed No0c40,724$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes73c40,273$29,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,873.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No11c40,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.973636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes74c38,694$28,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,939.555230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No5c30,348$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.737225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No8c22,562$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.892227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes73c17,908$13,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,797.688555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23e0…66b6backed Yes73c15,800$11,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,266333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No4c15,700$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.2624736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No11c13,764$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.764228.6%12 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+74.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No2c12,827$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.01540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No26c12,744$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,363.831827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes45c11,345$5,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,293.325236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes70c11,179$7,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,317.92339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ba…835abacked Yes27c10,249$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,456.22837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf8e…4590backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No25c10,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45010127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No0c9,800$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471f…f60abacked Yes77c8,805$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No15c8,527$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.525740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed No13c7,692$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+106.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked No2c7,478$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.44348.8%3 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes24c7,327$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,571.132412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No5c7,073$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3845322.6%12 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes69c6,920$4,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.218932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No26c6,835$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.818036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6327…e181backed Yes76c6,527$4,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8943…f226backed Yes54c6,499$3,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No6c5,742$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3321225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes69c5,571$3,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.137936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes74c5,405$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.4113268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No14c5,025$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.6712129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No13c4,793$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.8536742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No11c4,446$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No6c4,444$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.64825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…b1a5backed No5c4,296$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9187…4309backed Yes79c4,268$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No14c4,232$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.127625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No13c3,890$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.119237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No21c3,780$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.8232255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes23c3,477$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,686.992944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3,440.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes22c3,387$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.131435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15f…2cacbacked No3c3,299$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No9c3,224$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.483023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf05…5860backed No6c3,211$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x377d…2252backed No18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.991942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+192.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes61c2,953$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.36741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No8c2,935$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.034221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No13c2,913$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.6917037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes79c2,864$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.524055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes77c2,790$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6431855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes42c2,732$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.54814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No27c2,728$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.13917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb47…709dbacked Yes74c2,703$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No57c2,617$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.943324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x285f…2c03backed Yes35c2,559$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+142.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1de2…9e23backed Yes51c2,547$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.78825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0161…4fecbacked No29c2,456$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d8…6082backed No12c2,336$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4180…2a4bbacked Yes74c2,322$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No50c2,301$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.5312040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdda2…53b3backed No32c2,144$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes65c2,058$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.134531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2b6abacked Yes74c2,037$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.39850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cf…403abacked No7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No7c2,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.220325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No5c1,998$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.895420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed9…d463backed Yes74c1,946$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No4c1,904$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.62137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-88.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf132…6f55backed Yes77c1,836$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8243…15bfbacked Yes72c1,798$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked No70c1,774$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.346235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No26c1,700$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes75c1,673$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.223046.7%14 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6dba…e1a3backed Yes74c1,623$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a57…14a1backed Yes80c1,615$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.732360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab70…2c34backed No2c1,594$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x765b…1a00backed Yes73c1,585$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0034…d5a8backed Yes73c1,550$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes24c1,508$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.3726139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39014240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.