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World Politics · resolved market

Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,784 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb40…3612backed Yes0c50,653$59 inLost-$58.927416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost-$30460%0 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c14,444$14 inLost-$14.443614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…c057backed Yes0c11,324$23 inLost-$22.65260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60af…10cfbacked Yes1c5,671$70 inLost-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes3c4,340$148 inLost-$148.111827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes3c4,059$131 inLost-$131.28219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,456$33 inLost-$32.512939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4503…4474backed Yes7c1,798$120 inLost-$119.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…32ccbacked Yes1c1,585$20 inLost-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec7…c84cbacked Yes1c1,301$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a99…9895backed Yes1c1,220$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…fe12backed Yes2c879.4$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c459$20 inLost-$20.21,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…3614backed Yes7c397.26$30 inLost-$29.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes5c306.34$15 inLost-$15.165236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes4c300$12 inLost-$122842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.