World Politics · resolved market
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9def214e1d345ffe36115f0561c8bf3762dca350f748b7d8ccad15bb7e69cae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $422,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 88,627$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…c057backed Yes | 0c | 16,009$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…835abacked Yes | 11c | 10,078$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3244…5b5dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…3be3backed Yes | 1c | 1,579$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…5423backed Yes | 2c | 1,553$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 7c | 1,343$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 2c | 1,158$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 2c | 1,007$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…41aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 833$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 799.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 765.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…4f76backed Yes | 5c | 711$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…661abacked Yes | 5c | 606$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…b4c3backed Yes | 11c | 594$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fa…3803backed Yes | 4c | 548$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…47e1backed Yes | 5c | 540.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…23cdbacked Yes | 5c | 539$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…154fbacked Yes | 5c | 534$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 10c | 525$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…192fbacked Yes | 4c | 516$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…9b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 503$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…0a8fbacked Yes | 5c | 501$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed Yes | 5c | 481.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af9…687bbacked Yes | 5c | 471$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…6448backed Yes | 4c | 447$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…a63cbacked Yes | 4c | 426$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…767ebacked Yes | 5c | 419.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 14c | 398.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594d…62f0backed Yes | 4c | 382$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…3769backed Yes | 4c | 368$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…b4b5backed Yes | 4c | 366$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…8577backed Yes | 4c | 360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce9…420bbacked Yes | 5c | 342$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…2290backed Yes | 4c | 319$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…179ebacked Yes | 4c | 314$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…a834backed Yes | 5c | 307$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…76efbacked Yes | 4c | 298$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…7a5dbacked Yes | 5c | 294$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…e467backed Yes | 4c | 290$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…c655backed Yes | 4c | 287$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…2746backed Yes | 4c | 281$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…744dbacked Yes | 4c | 267$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…1101backed Yes | 5c | 257$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…ef97backed Yes | 5c | 252$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…738abacked Yes | 4c | 241$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ff…abd5backed Yes | 4c | 236$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…6686backed Yes | 4c | 233$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…6574backed Yes | 6c | 232.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…9dc9backed Yes | 5c | 226$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 7c | 225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…427ebacked Yes | 5c | 225$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…81fabacked Yes | 5c | 213$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 26c | 119.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4792…8d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?this page
- Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Billy Kelleher win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.