TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$330,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c65,000$65 inLost-$65460%0 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c49,444$83 inLost-$82.783614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…c057backed Yes0c24,704$49 inLost-$49.41260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$204440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35e…5208backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ad…1398backed Yes5c2,019$101 inLost-$100.78616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-56.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c1,889$14 inLost-$14.12939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes9c1,500$132 inLost-$131.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c293.56$12 inLost-$12.411,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes8c212.92$18 inLost-$17.6613413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.