TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,311,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,323,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,311,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c272,139$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c242,474$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.971018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes0c186,504$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c163,333$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes0c156,624$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.842166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+26.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d21…a5b7backed Yes0c140,500$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes0c93,245$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.387416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x090e…07c7backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes4c50,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.611136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9f…8c06backed Yes0c49,975$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca46…b655backed Yes0c45,615$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27b8…8ab0backed Yes5c38,981$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca88…f65ebacked Yes7c35,396$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c29,201$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.891344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x458c…c961backed Yes2c26,901$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe5…b65dbacked Yes4c26,458$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2b…b200backed Yes4c24,247$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ee…c453backed Yes8c23,181$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb96a…18d4backed Yes3c22,860$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea68…2909backed Yes8c22,235$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb748…b673backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe765…4ae2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c19,846$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.444521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x627b…7d19backed Yes4c17,788$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…7b98backed Yes2c17,125$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes4c17,007$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.771030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-62%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9952…2edbbacked Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d8…e99bbacked Yes8c16,987$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c16,671$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.374814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c16,087$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.666883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd89…3f1bbacked Yes6c15,614$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes0c15,333$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb2…a3f1backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes6c14,877$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8bd…2e08backed Yes1c13,442$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaea…54a0backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes4c12,177$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x513f…3180backed Yes0c11,333$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251f…55a2backed Yes1c10,620$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c9…5769backed Yes0c10,332$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c10,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3475…795cbacked Yes4c10,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a0…c01bbacked Yes10c9,982$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c7…9cc4backed Yes5c9,775$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes5c9,240$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1580…9394backed Yes9c9,083$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7208…8a41backed Yes6c8,783$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb1…089ebacked Yes5c7,807$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes6c7,691$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.836225.8%16 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2e…a8e7backed Yes4c7,689$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes5c7,440$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.026930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…35febacked Yes6c7,333$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c7,191$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.313917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Yes4c7,078$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.071717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c7,046$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.152939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4a…d8e0backed Yes0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked Yes3c6,834$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa74a…6b18backed Yes7c6,677$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddb…cfbcbacked Yes0c6,548$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ef…7243backed Yes0c6,521$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d2…4d11backed Yes5c6,340$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes4c6,000$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803f…3ea0backed Yes1c5,941$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eda…0e71backed Yes2c5,765$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112119%4 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b5…35edbacked Yes2c5,391$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…4740backed Yes6c5,341$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5250…84e6backed Yes4c5,306$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d6…7f5ebacked Yes0c5,170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a56…1f55backed Yes0c5,130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd4e…c6f3backed Yes0c5,090$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692a…afd6backed Yes0c5,030$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1d…cea7backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6306…852abacked Yes4c5,000$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf750…f162backed Yes4c4,955$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.74520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+509.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes5c4,882$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+77.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeaa…b747backed Yes1c4,871$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,701$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.191,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d3…66ffbacked Yes5c4,657$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ca…4faebacked Yes5c4,572$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe73f…740bbacked Yes0c4,505$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…09a7backed Yes1c4,417$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6950…b32abacked Yes5c4,255$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a54…42f1backed Yes3c4,220$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,210$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.174766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes4c4,169$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1d…45ccbacked Yes6c4,169$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb579…f458backed Yes3c4,160$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3172…7a9dbacked Yes6c4,136$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes12c4,092$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c4,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.55132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d7…14a9backed Yes6c3,993$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed Yes0c3,978$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6096…4810backed Yes13c3,863$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes11c3,662$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fc…39f5backed Yes3c3,395$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes4c3,265$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.755633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.