World Politics · resolved market
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6955e20da36c2ae43568b63b3491a4f7d4f7d528f0408909b91ed7c3e74d42db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $407,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 133,476$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…c057backed Yes | 0c | 10,434$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…9f08backed Yes | 0c | 7,657$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,076$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 1c | 3,398$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…1398backed Yes | 3c | 3,353$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,789$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,001$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…1bd7backed Yes | 3c | 767$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…cbdfbacked Yes | 3c | 763$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 752.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…8edabacked Yes | 3c | 708$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ca…a728backed Yes | 3c | 660$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Yes | 4c | 641.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…0e74backed Yes | 3c | 580$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…9531backed Yes | 3c | 566$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…86a4backed Yes | 4c | 549$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…33babacked Yes | 4c | 527.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…3e10backed Yes | 4c | 521$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…3ba2backed Yes | 3c | 506$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…7637backed Yes | 4c | 499$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…b781backed Yes | 4c | 492$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ec…c895backed Yes | 3c | 488$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 470.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…7627backed Yes | 3c | 468$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…ad6dbacked Yes | 3c | 466$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…c74ebacked Yes | 4c | 458.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed4…e3d7backed Yes | 4c | 457$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e885backed Yes | 4c | 451$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…6526backed Yes | 4c | 448$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…c99bbacked Yes | 3c | 437$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…5336backed Yes | 4c | 428$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…7d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 424$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…b5bbbacked Yes | 3c | 409$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…857bbacked Yes | 3c | 403$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6505…c916backed Yes | 3c | 384$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6529…03cbbacked Yes | 4c | 352$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 344$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…d284backed Yes | 4c | 341.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…c002backed Yes | 4c | 322$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…f2c7backed Yes | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…a758backed Yes | 4c | 298$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7f…3b3dbacked Yes | 4c | 279$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…7ee1backed Yes | 4c | 275$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f3…a75abacked Yes | 4c | 273$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 15c | 175.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb00…c01ebacked Yes | 25c | 169$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…62e2backed Yes | 26c | 78.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ee…c6f0backed Yes | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…802ebacked No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfa…4873backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…d59dbacked No | 64c | 44.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…788cbacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…3f7abacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…e2dfbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…55e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…8cbcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…cdc4backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…b436backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3549…d376backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4939…4f93backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6d…687abacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election?this page
- Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Billy Kelleher win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.