World Politics · resolved market
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc53b987bb73eea0705fd7b13dd4c61371953f992e1c10e3566479049fe8723b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,175,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,175,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8a7…4a37backed Yes | 0c | 1,059,808$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…ab47backed Yes | 0c | 1,057,823$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5b95backed Yes | 0c | 813,940$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…8e81backed Yes | 0c | 803,280$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…f4d2backed Yes | 0c | 778,239$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc172…aa1cbacked Yes | 0c | 778,239$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…184fbacked Yes | 0c | 737,133$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4b…7aabbacked Yes | 0c | 737,133$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032c…ae79backed Yes | 0c | 649,116$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…c505backed Yes | 0c | 640,023$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33f…f981backed Yes | 0c | 371,454$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb60…46d4backed Yes | 0c | 334,309$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 117,108$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc01…603bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…354ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,435$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…c057backed Yes | 0c | 9,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 0c | 4,310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,196$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes | 4c | 3,410$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,460$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 2c | 2,012$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 2c | 1,615$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 2c | 1,015$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 3c | 606.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…4e70backed Yes | 11c | 99.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?this page
- Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Billy Kelleher win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.