World Politics · resolved market
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d4715318b14dc1d5437f3139dead9ef1c5159dc18b9860e3280dee36fdf8980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 82,041$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 42,717$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dd…a96dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…c057backed Yes | 0c | 5,704$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,557$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 5c | 2,306$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,611$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…e963backed Yes | 16c | 1,258$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,039$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…7087backed Yes | 3c | 1,029$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 904.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 16c | 826$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 3c | 775.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…bd89backed Yes | 6c | 656$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…88c8backed Yes | 4c | 642.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…83d0backed Yes | 6c | 607$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 600$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…2343backed Yes | 2c | 576$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6105…43d9backed Yes | 6c | 575$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…a0c3backed Yes | 4c | 564$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…c6d6backed Yes | 5c | 559$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6026…5aa7backed Yes | 2c | 555$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 15c | 530.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…d39cbacked Yes | 2c | 513$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…9618backed Yes | 4c | 510$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…fae1backed Yes | 2c | 508$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Yes | 5c | 498.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 495$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…2b6dbacked Yes | 4c | 484$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…0fd2backed Yes | 2c | 482$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 10c | 460$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Yes | 11c | 449.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b99…17fdbacked Yes | 4c | 439$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…2eb7backed Yes | 2c | 436$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…99debacked Yes | 4c | 434$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…a000backed Yes | 4c | 407$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…6f91backed Yes | 18c | 403.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e6…317ebacked Yes | 4c | 403$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…626cbacked Yes | 4c | 355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c0…2583backed Yes | 4c | 354$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…de66backed Yes | 4c | 353$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…ea72backed Yes | 6c | 342$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 19c | 340.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…9105backed Yes | 4c | 314$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…9165backed Yes | 4c | 293$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ba…f62cbacked Yes | 6c | 285$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed Yes | 5c | 283.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…e929backed Yes | 4c | 273$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…b01cbacked Yes | 6c | 254$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 253.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb92…a88dbacked Yes | 6c | 237$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…cd72backed Yes | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…2098backed Yes | 6c | 214$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 18c | 208.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x940a…58cfbacked Yes | 6c | 203$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83eb…918abacked Yes | 6c | 201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 17c | 193.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…3b66backed Yes | 5c | 189$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…5be1backed Yes | 6c | 188$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 20c | 162$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 18c | 108.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?this page
- Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Billy Kelleher win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.