World Politics · resolved market
Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1403fbf43c2b75920fc475e8471cbd71060a6e86802ebd746c143f05c413f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,972,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,972,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41e8…5b95backed Yes | 0c | 213,032$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…8e81backed Yes | 0c | 197,421$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13a…a0edbacked Yes | 0c | 99,287$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…47d9backed Yes | 0c | 96,718$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf266…3f66backed Yes | 0c | 96,598$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…abb1backed Yes | 0c | 79,656$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc5…0e21backed Yes | 0c | 79,242$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…8454backed Yes | 0c | 77,362$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…0725backed Yes | 0c | 77,342$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…c961backed Yes | 0c | 60,119$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc54…0f38backed Yes | 0c | 59,567$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566f…da27backed Yes | 0c | 59,427$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797d…e59abacked Yes | 0c | 59,387$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…4c3bbacked Yes | 0c | 58,227$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…632abacked Yes | 0c | 58,100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…cf2ebacked Yes | 0c | 57,930$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…0120backed Yes | 0c | 57,807$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…316dbacked Yes | 0c | 44,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ad…c4e1backed Yes | 0c | 43,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 0c | 33,612$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…83a6backed Yes | 0c | 30,717$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,203$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…b372backed Yes | 0c | 22,850$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…9f0abacked Yes | 1c | 13,562$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked Yes | 1c | 12,749$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,462$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f80…4faebacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…426bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 8c | 5,945$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 2c | 4,931$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 11c | 3,952$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 33c | 3,800$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…0125backed Yes | 0c | 3,024$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…1398backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,964$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.27 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,669$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…07adbacked No | 59c | 2,013$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +316.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…5a29backed Yes | 6c | 1,732$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…fcd0backed Yes | 20c | 1,254$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,229$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…767ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,163$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,141$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,105$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…13a7backed Yes | 49c | 1,030$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…7040backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 955$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.76 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed No | 55c | 933.3$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…5d6bbacked Yes | 21c | 847.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 689.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 27c | 668.19$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.37 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Yes | 37c | 665.04$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 664.93$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…8414backed Yes | 19c | 662.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 10c | 641.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 60c | 599.92$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.97 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 573.78$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.91 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 40c | 533.15$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a65abacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 508.87$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 36c | 504.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…495dbacked Yes | 5c | 500.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 61c | 496.85$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.81 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 27c | 476$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…20fcbacked Yes | 31c | 474.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…4474backed Yes | 23c | 409.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…9fd1backed Yes | 30c | 389.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…0f14backed Yes | 46c | 345.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 28c | 333.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 66c | 315.18$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 59c | 304.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 77c | 284.52$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…ff91backed Yes | 37c | 272.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe526…6d8ebacked Yes | 40c | 264.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…8b75backed Yes | 44c | 262.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 256.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 38c | 215.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 70c | 215.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…d4debacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 40c | 198.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 195.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 10c | 187.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 187$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…6c12backed Yes | 22c | 177.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…9d46backed No | 55c | 175.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2497backed Yes | 45c | 170.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 45c | 170.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Yes | 34c | 169.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f5…7cfdbacked Yes | 36c | 167.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 36c | 154$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…71f4backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 34c | 147.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 58c | 142.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…4a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?this page
- Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Billy Kelleher win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Micheal Martin win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
- Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.