TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,972,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,972,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41e8…5b95backed Yes0c213,032$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…8e81backed Yes0c197,421$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd13a…a0edbacked Yes0c99,287$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4e…47d9backed Yes0c96,718$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf266…3f66backed Yes0c96,598$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba9…abb1backed Yes0c79,656$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc5…0e21backed Yes0c79,242$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468d…8454backed Yes0c77,362$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa417…0725backed Yes0c77,342$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x458c…c961backed Yes0c60,119$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc54…0f38backed Yes0c59,567$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x566f…da27backed Yes0c59,427$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797d…e59abacked Yes0c59,387$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b72…4c3bbacked Yes0c58,227$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e60…632abacked Yes0c58,100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d7…cf2ebacked Yes0c57,930$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d03…0120backed Yes0c57,807$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9632…316dbacked Yes0c44,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ad…c4e1backed Yes0c43,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes0c33,612$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c32,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9538…83a6backed Yes0c30,717$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c25,203$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x169a…b372backed Yes0c22,850$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bc…9f0abacked Yes1c13,562$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…32ccbacked Yes1c12,749$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.73922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c12,462$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+214.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f80…4faebacked Yes0c11,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf978…426bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes8c5,945$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.021827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes2c4,931$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.51137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-88.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes11c3,952$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes33c3,800$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60c…0125backed Yes0c3,024$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ad…1398backed Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-56.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes20c2,964$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.276235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,669$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.811,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b2…07adbacked No59c2,013$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+316.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5508…5a29backed Yes6c1,732$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9321…fcd0backed Yes20c1,254$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+83.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes13c1,229$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.085317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf80…767ebacked Yes15c1,163$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.33837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes31c1,141$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.68825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes15c1,105$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.994814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf1…13a7backed Yes49c1,030$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x448a…7040backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes36c999.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+75%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes28c955$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7619237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d3…4ca5backed No55c933.3$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.231533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9081…5d6bbacked Yes21c847.66$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c689.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes27c668.19$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3717037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Yes37c665.04$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c664.93$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dd…8414backed Yes19c662.14$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Yes10c641.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No60c599.92$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.977936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes28c573.78$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9126139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes40c533.15$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…a65abacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c508.87$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.821,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes36c504.95$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.234112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ab…495dbacked Yes5c500.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d0…a970backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No61c496.85$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.813917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes27c476$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7515026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x955c…20fcbacked Yes31c474.34$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+151.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4503…4474backed Yes23c409.46$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba34…9fd1backed Yes30c389.27$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4475…0f14backed Yes46c345.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes28c333.59$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.452842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No66c315.18$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.935174.5%38 W · 13 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No59c304.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.942250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+71.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes15c300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No77c284.52$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.583450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad4…ff91backed Yes37c272.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe526…6d8ebacked Yes40c264.46$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa779…8b75backed Yes44c262.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…b97bbacked Yes39c256.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes38c215.79$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3303…9266backed No70c215.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No57c200$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.34641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…d4debacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x027c…60f2backed Yes40c198.64$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.291526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-61.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes5c195.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes10c187.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.996523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c187$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.551,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b30…6c12backed Yes22c177.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0ba…9d46backed No55c175.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc92d…2497backed Yes45c170.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Yes45c170.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e3…d1bdbacked Yes34c169.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f5…7cfdbacked Yes36c167.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes45c165$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.981526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes36c154$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.01333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee0…71f4backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes34c147.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.262860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No58c142.62$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.91435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…4a9bbacked Yes35c139.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.