Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48377432ecf88f74a4001b2935c9264f51b3ff0e22d3d9cc6f2f224538373bfc

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 25, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $347,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $176,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,808 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf230…bbfbbacked Yes	4c	74,836$2,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,692.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9130…5c02backed Yes	0c	26,508$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a4…5267backed Yes	0c	24,518$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes	3c	23,394$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.2	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes	0c	22,220$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	361	4.4%16 W · 345 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes	5c	15,423$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ee…e59ebacked Yes	5c	10,657$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	9,995$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bc…9f0abacked Yes	0c	9,203$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	5c	5,278$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.78	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-71%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cbb…374abacked Yes	9c	5,018$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.92	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7137…08a2backed Yes	8c	4,299$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,032$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.29	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes	7c	3,956$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.35	65	23.1%15 W · 50 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	4c	3,897$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.14	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes	5c	3,640$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.04	52	36.5%19 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	6c	2,397$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.42	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	2,324$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.22	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	4c	2,100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.9	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…32ccbacked Yes	5c	2,051$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Yes	9c	1,483$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x139d…1e94backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd196…dcc2backed Yes	7c	1,033$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ba…9d46backed Yes	10c	1,003$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.8	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.15per pick	37cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb5b…23dfbacked Yes	3c	705.88$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b30…6c12backed Yes	4c	672.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaebf…f658backed Yes	5c	474.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82e3…1fe4backed Yes	5c	396.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	3c	392.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…1369backed Yes	3c	331.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6938…7185backed Yes	6c	328.38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x803f…3ea0backed Yes	6c	317.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9691…8478backed Yes	11c	303.26$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b6b…4860backed Yes	9c	253$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x375d…45a3backed Yes	11c	218.74$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad55…6636backed Yes	9c	175$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes	6c	166.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes	9c	166.8$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	164$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event