TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$466,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,024 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c83,606$104 inLost-$103.613614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c55,000$55 inLost-$55460%0 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71af…c057backed Yes0c27,499$55 inLost-$55260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost-$253545.7%16 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$204440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,510$26 inLost-$25.764521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11b…aaf2backed Yes1c1,817$16 inLost-$16.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes7c1,138$85 inLost-$85.0513413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes1c953.92$10 inLost-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes6c757.27$45 inLost-$457936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes4c568.96$25 inLost-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes7c559.7$41 inLost-$41.055236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b8…88c8backed Yes2c540.51$11 inLost-$10.81160%0 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x841a…6f91backed Yes11c446.94$50 inLost-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+119.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes6c342.85$20 inLost-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2537…e959backed Yes6c321.45$20 inLost-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$105230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42a…f660backed Yes10c198.43$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes6c190.16$12 inLost-$12.224427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dbe…c8a3backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$11.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes13c98.99$13 inLost-$13.0531443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.