Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142f3c05425a32db5e9c5b3dcfa7d2507a43c45866538442dfe714adf359aa86

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 25, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $308,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $162,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes	0c	51,500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.83	361	4.4%16 W · 345 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes	0c	43,793$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.79	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	46	0%0 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…c057backed Yes	0c	17,233$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.47	26	0%0 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	2,130$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	83	21.7%18 W · 65 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	2c	1,103$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7d…a750backed Yes	1c	869$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes	4c	524.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	134	13.4%18 W · 116 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdd…b709backed Yes	3c	503$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x989c…fa6dbacked Yes	3c	450$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes	5c	430.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event