Token Launches · resolved market
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2aee30b1b94aa149a1d3636e212b85f097292034605f5e27c923a87fcaf32f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 50c | 35,983$18,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,966.37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…9c70backed No | 25c | 32,090$8,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,084.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…1ab0backed No | 50c | 15,318$7,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,636.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…c7c9backed No | 49c | 15,050$7,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,324.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 79c | 13,532$10,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.89 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 12,186$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d6…8b36backed Yes | 70c | 9,476$6,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,842.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 38c | 7,840$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfb…7d18backed No | 11c | 5,392$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c4…edf9backed No | 2c | 4,773$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 50c | 4,763$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.34 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 51c | 4,235$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 78c | 3,515$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 6c | 3,447$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…3b76backed Yes | 78c | 3,427$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 21c | 3,105$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.14 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…fa41backed Yes | 68c | 2,950$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…cefdbacked Yes | 70c | 2,857$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…21c5backed No | 54c | 2,708$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…67f8backed No | 48c | 2,557$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…0235backed No | 41c | 2,440$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 33c | 2,353$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 2,256$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…dcf3backed No | 50c | 2,224$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 2,120$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.63 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 12c | 1,948$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 58c | 1,922$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…969dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,859$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,614$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,614$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…8a28backed No | 51c | 1,546$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…9c55backed No | 1c | 1,536$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…6204backed No | 20c | 1,489$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked No | 6c | 1,440$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,421$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…3874backed Yes | 58c | 1,388$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 51c | 1,368$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 60c | 1,320$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3615…8a0ebacked No | 61c | 1,160$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…ea62backed No | 3c | 1,065$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 10c | 1,049$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…2294backed No | 2c | 1,040$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…eccdbacked No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…2815backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 21c | 856.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 33c | 816.92$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.93 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…c354backed Yes | 53c | 799.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 779.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 78c | 774.67$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…e784backed No | 70c | 750$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed No | 2c | 716.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…a0b9backed Yes | 79c | 697.47$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 692.2$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…8011backed No | 43c | 688.91$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 9c | 687.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…4a00backed No | 27c | 647.6$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…b849backed Yes | 55c | 623.93$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…51b7backed No | 56c | 622.43$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…548ebacked No | 51c | 610.95$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 4c | 558.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 55c | 520.37$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.2 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…7382backed No | 49c | 510.39$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…23cdbacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…59b2backed No | 51c | 459.55$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.82 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…947abacked Yes | 44c | 455.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked No | 73c | 454.9$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…647bbacked No | 15c | 430.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 415.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e29…3a36backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 61c | 382.58$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5c3fbacked No | 64c | 381.58$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 11c | 361.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 28c | 353$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 16c | 338.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…a14cbacked No | 42c | 336.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…bfbabacked Yes | 59c | 319.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…0b6bbacked No | 65c | 302.35$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…79b1backed Yes | 33c | 297.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…3578backed Yes | 77c | 288.18$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…595ebacked Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 53c | 273.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 24c | 263.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 57c | 257.05$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…5a98backed No | 10c | 246.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…7029backed No | 53c | 237.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…85c0backed No | 60c | 223.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75df…e690backed No | 63c | 208.26$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 201$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…62dbbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed No | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 53c | 188.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Plasma >$1B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$2B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.