Token Launches · resolved market
Plasma >$2B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e41b282b559f8c67fb561de12a284ec209555a1f41a5e20ac3e26a30e3b27da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 0c | 20,790$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…1e7ebacked No | 2c | 6,446$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 3,408$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,376$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 8c | 2,810$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.74 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…85c0backed No | 26c | 1,926$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…5a98backed No | 4c | 1,485$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 11c | 1,094$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked No | 11c | 1,076$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 33c | 927.51$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 10c | 738.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 10c | 517.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 2c | 503.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…28c1backed No | 10c | 496.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 3c | 494.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 67c | 450.9$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 21c | 405.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked No | 11c | 365.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…7396backed No | 6c | 342.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 8c | 341.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 25c | 332.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 295.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 15c | 260.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a0…fe1abacked No | 10c | 200.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…8d07backed Yes | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 9c | 152.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 39c | 141.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…01c1backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…292dbacked No | 19c | 116.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 11c | 116.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…b0e8backed No | 47c | 109.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…8fe0backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 44c | 75.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…722dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…2f73backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 68c | 19.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Plasma >$2B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Plasma >$1B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.