Token Launches · resolved market
Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf07084191547e8b2a689c9463dd47bd7e7db728bedbd43e75390fbd337c874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd276…b562backed No | 3c | 16,870$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 52c | 13,430$6,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,978.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a0…284dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…7acbbacked Yes | 53c | 9,000$4,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 57c | 5,873$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 41c | 2,949$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…2a49backed Yes | 27c | 2,459$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb3…9a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,963$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 40c | 1,700$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 60c | 1,605$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 46c | 1,520$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.9 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 61c | 1,500$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed No | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…7f58backed No | 47c | 1,485$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…b849backed Yes | 25c | 1,483$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 4c | 1,064$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 39c | 1,029$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…7c25backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…bf25backed No | 57c | 882.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 34c | 870.04$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.23 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…30cbbacked No | 75c | 866.66$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…6d39backed Yes | 44c | 835.74$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 47c | 815.96$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Yes | 44c | 779.26$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…2d21backed No | 72c | 704.75$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 40c | 671.67$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 52c | 508.79$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…64e0backed Yes | 32c | 500$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 61c | 493.04$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…9b0ebacked No | 3c | 451.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 34c | 423.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…32a2backed Yes | 25c | 419.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 57c | 412.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…6204backed No | 52c | 409.31$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…3fcebacked Yes | 25c | 390$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 54c | 360$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…1ab6backed Yes | 33c | 359.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…9c55backed No | 7c | 296.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…afbbbacked No | 36c | 272$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…66b1backed Yes | 38c | 235$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 71c | 210.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed No | 10c | 196$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed No | 61c | 180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…f17ebacked No | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 57c | 152.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd5…fc44backed No | 68c | 151.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.3wins | -0.48per pick | 59cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc7…1799backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0a…4618backed No | 79c | 135$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 80c | 127.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 67c | 121.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…6d10backed Yes | 39c | 96.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 48c | 95.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 73c | 94.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…8996backed Yes | 48c | 93.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…12b1backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…224fbacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 51c | 69.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 72c | 67.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…da11backed No | 75c | 41.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf669…c10abacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…b019backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…82d8backed No | 72c | 17.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Plasma >$1B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$2B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.