Token Launches · resolved market
Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490e588c614e7ca1434d34a9c1f1523e588d0f42ac333e0b72cf5c32e377bbf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5b4…9c70backed No | 33c | 16,417$5,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,394.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 72c | 15,000$10,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…9c55backed No | 0c | 11,141$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Yes | 64c | 10,731$6,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,854.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68a0…284dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…2294backed No | 29c | 8,485$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,626$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 52c | 4,330$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…6939backed No | 20c | 3,921$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 2c | 3,400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…6204backed No | 39c | 3,022$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 53c | 1,892$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.48 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 20c | 1,585$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…1ab0backed Yes | 63c | 1,300$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…f290backed Yes | 77c | 1,294$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…21c5backed Yes | 41c | 1,210$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 51c | 1,172$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.52 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…afbbbacked No | 9c | 1,074$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…59b2backed No | 43c | 1,065$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.43 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…3874backed Yes | 49c | 1,013$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…2a49backed Yes | 58c | 926.63$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 69c | 874.58$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 37c | 799.98$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…f17ebacked No | 19c | 690$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 28c | 685.56$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.78 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 66c | 573.19$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 35c | 544.16$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…2393backed Yes | 71c | 500$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…2dbcbacked Yes | 53c | 466.22$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5d…5b0cbacked Yes | 49c | 411.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…1c43backed No | 59c | 406.58$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…3a01backed No | 27c | 374.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 48c | 301.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 41c | 300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…23cdbacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 59c | 236.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 42c | 213$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…b585backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…d4b9backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…4496backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd5…fc44backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.3wins | -0.48per pick | 59cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 72c | 181$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf03…e13dbacked No | 29c | 173.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…42e5backed Yes | 46c | 152.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 70c | 151.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…1109backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 50c | 109.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…f11fbacked Yes | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…8369backed Yes | 63c | 84.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 57c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 56c | 74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…ea62backed No | 28c | 73.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 41c | 67.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…c354backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…f13abacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…6d0dbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 34c | 34.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 58c | 34.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…9f0dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…079abacked No | 59c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…9e9cbacked No | 58c | 17.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Plasma >$1B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$2B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.